de

del

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Afp
La Jornada Maya

Martes 16 de octubre, 2018

Over the past few months many of my articles have focused on liberal democracy and populism. In my view, for those of us who live in Liberal democracies, this is the ideological struggle of our time and the outcome will affect us all for years.

Has liberal democracy had its day, and has illiberal democracy – populism with or without extreme nationalism – already won?

I don’t think so.

Political leaders who espouse liberal democracy have a fight on their hands and they must develop strategies to both defend it and also to proactively create winning conditions for its survival and its success.

What are the challenges?

The first challenge is a tendency by many leaders to focus on macroeconomic growth as an indicator of economic well-being, while minimizing the impact of macroeconomic policies on the real-life situation of the average voter. Stock market and GDP growth are essential for macroeconomic growth. However, the perception on the part of many voters who feel disenfranchised is that macroeconomic growth has contributed to the fortunes of the few at the expense of the many. Studies have shown that in real terms salaries have remained stagnant since the 1980’s despite strong macroeconomic growth. This is one of the reasons why many voters in liberal democracies feel marginalized and are seeking alternatives to the political narratives of the past forty years.

The perceived lack of economic justice by many in liberal democracies ensures that the vast majority of citizens enjoy only limited fruits of growing economies. Microeconomic growth must become the focus of governments and of liberal democratic leaders everywhere. Populists play on the fears of the marginalized that everything is a disaster even if not factually true. They also argue that things will get worse unless they are elected. Instead of convincing voters to improve their lot through education and hard work, they identify internal and external enemies whom they blame as responsible for the malaise.

The second challenge is a need for liberal democratic candidates to develop impactful messages. In previous articles, I have shown how, in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s focus on complex political, social, and economic messages confused or simply turned off many parts of the electorate. Her politics of division (identity politics) alienated many who were looking for a unifying message in a polarized environment. Her main contender on the left, Bernie Sanders, had far simpler messages that were easy to understand and that addressed the malaise felt by many voters. Sanders was able to reach large swathes of millennials who, upon his defeat in the primaries, ultimately stayed at home on election day rather than support and vote for Clinton.

Liberal democratic parties must develop motivating visions that focus on positive, simple, strong messages. They must espouse common sense, practical solutions to the problems and concerns facing voters. They must select fresh faces and charismatic leaders who can not only communicate well but can actually connect with voters. They must convince voters that their future depends on their voting rather than abstaining. Absent this, populists, who do drive their followers to voting stations, will continue to win.

In 2015, Canada’s Justin Trudeau campaigned on a platform of unity and positivity, bringing people together in a common vision for Canada. In France, Emmanuel Macron followed the same path and defeated the populist candidate. In both cases they were seen as fresh faces who were able to galvanize voters with positive visions for the future. Voters demanded change, and both of these leaders responded to those demands. However, they will be judged by their ability to deliver on their narratives.

The third challenge is a need to campaign strategically. Depending on the nature of the political system, much thought must be given by campaign organizers to target their resources and the candidates’ time in markets that can determine a positive outcome. Hillary Clinton’s decision to not campaign in some key electoral states (thinking that they were in the bag) lost her the election as Trump picked up those valuable Electoral College votes and won despite obtaining three million votes less than Clinton. Wrong strategy, sad outcome.

The fourth challenge is a need for liberal democratic leaders and their followers to coalesce nationally and internationally to fight illiberal democracy and populism from a position of unity and strength. We have seen how Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity has been reduced and how, provincially, some Canadians have voted for right wing governments who have played the dog whistles of ultra-conservative messaging very well. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is an admirer of Donald Trump’s and is following his lead on many issues, including education and the environment. Also, Quebec’s incoming Premier François Legault, has already used the traditional defense of the French Québec language and culture to state in his campaign that immigrants who do not learn French or adapt to “Quebec values” within 3 years of immigrating to Québec should be deported. This includes wearing religious symbols of any kind such as crosses, kippahs and hijabs while working as public servants. While Legault is not a populist, his government’s adoption of such policies may well serve populist elements by justifying their prejudices and encapsulating them in the government’s narrative.

The fifth challenge calls for liberal democratic leaders to find a way to unite and take the fight to the populist nationalists if they are to compete on a level playing field. Coalitions among liberal forces nationally and internationally must be pursued if they are to challenge the current momentum on the right and the left. Both versions of populism are destructive and unproductive. One has only to see how Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua are faring with left-wing populists in power and how the right-wing populists in the United Kingdom who espouse Brexit or in the United States who espouse “America First” are creating a climate of economic and financial malaise through disruption and protectionism.

In this vein, Canadian Press reported on October 4, 2018, that Canada will play host to senior ministers from 13 “like-minded” countries for a two-day discussion in Ottawa later this month to brainstorm ways to reform the World Trade Organization. International Trade Diversification Minister Jim Carr said the group of countries he’s convened ultimately wants to persuade Washington of the continued usefulness of the WTO, but for now the best way forward is without the United States in the room.

“We think that the best way to sequence the discussion is to start with like-minded people, and that’s whom we have invited and they’re coming,” Mr. Carr said. “Those who believe that a rules-based system is in the interests of the international community will meet to come up with a consensus that we will then move out into nations who might have been more resistant.”

We should see more coordination meetings between like-minded governments and liberal political parties to help strike coalitions that can reinforce liberal democratic governance and support the international rules-based system. At the same time, these same leaders need to find language, ideas and approaches to address concerns and issues in order seek common ground or compromises with which all can live.

Finally, liberal democratic leaders must find ways to enhance the international system of organizations and agencies and improve their performance. Multilateral institutions are essential since, today, no one country can stand on its own and face the myriad challenges facing humanity. Yet the United Nations is almost universally judged by the behavior of a thoroughly dysfunctional Security Council rather than by the various successful specialized agencies that work daily to address and resolve the major challenges that we all face.

Today the reality is that we live in a global economy and that migration and trade are fundamental challenges. Liberal democratic leaders must find ways to ensure that these issues affect populations positively and are perceived as such, and that the interests of the average voter are taken into account in public discourse and public policy.

Liberal democracy can win.

It may not become a global force since we live in a multipolar and multicultural world, and other regions and cultures have different views on politics and their own centers of power.

But, at least, liberal democracy can continue to be the way of life in countries where it has been the norm and can meet the challenges of extreme nationalism, authoritarianism, and populism in societies where these phenomena are threatening individual freedoms and respect for the “other”.

Change the narrative, strengthen and unite the messengers, and engage voters positively. The three necessary elements for liberal democrats to win in their own countries.

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