Cataluña, Spain in turbulence

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Ap
La Jornada Maya

Lunes 16 de octubre, 2017

On October 10, President Carles Puigdemont of Cataluña declared that Cataluña had earned the right to be independent, but stopped short of declaring unilateral independence. He tempered his speech with a call for the Spanish government to negotiate, but negotiate about what and towards what remains undefined. This left many wondering whether independence had in fact been declared or not.

In his response the next day, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy cleverly challenged Puigdemont to clarify his statement and let Catalans know exactly where they stood with respect to Spanish law and the constitution. Mr. Rajoy accused Mr. Puigdemont of creating "deliberate confusion" and said he wanted to restore "certainty". A clear position is essential for Catalans and the rest of Spain to know precisely where they were and what the next steps could be. Mr. Rajoy reiterated his point that he will not negotiate anything with someone who is acting outside the law – something Puigdemont seems to want to fudge in his speech on October 10th.

The referendum on October 1, 2017, was held under highly irregular conditions, and had been deemed illegal by Spain’s constitutional court. The normal levels of scrutiny and security essential in democratic elections were absent. Referendum organizers and participants, many urged on by the Catalan government to defy the court ruling were met with strong armed police tactics. Over 800 were injured. Catalan independence supporters launched a major public relations campaign using the footage of the violence to cast Madrid’s response as authoritarian and a step back into Spain’s past.

Mr. Rajoy based his arguments along strict constitutional lines. In my view, he managed poorly what he saw as a major provocation by the Catalan Government. The police overreacted in some cases, resulting in the number of injuries. His management of the situation has lacked political sensitivity and vision in the eyes of many, and reminded many viewers of another time in Spain.

The optics diminished international sympathy for his legal position, seemingly enforced by police acting on behalf of the judiciary rather than a positive public information campaign by Rajoy and his government. A positive national and international campaign by the Rajoy government could well have underscored the benefits to Catalans of a continued union with Spain, countering the nationalistic rhetoric of the Catalan government. In today’s networked world, images of perceived brutality and messages lacking in political savvy can bounce around the world in minutes, creating unfavorable impressions regardless of legality. Perception can be as damaging or rewarding as is content.

Cataluña itself lacks internal unity. On October 8th, demonstrations by tens of thousands of anti-independence Catalans in Barcelona who marched in favor of unity and the constitution further underscored the depths of divisions in Cataluña. Indeed, most serious polls indicate that at least half of all Catalans support unity with the rest of Spain. As Canada has shown with its Clarity Law in response to the separatist movement in Quebec, 50 percent +1 is not a valid formula to break up a country.

Should he finalize and proclaim a declaration of independence, Puigdemont, if not jailed and removed from office, would in fact lead a deeply divided “nation” and a potentially increasingly impoverished state, isolated from its major trading partners (the EU and the rest of Spain), and staring into an abyss of sorts.

Puigdemont faces extreme pressure from the financial community. Over 30 major banks and other companies are relocating to other cities in non-Catalan Spain, and more are expected to follow. Hotel reservations in Cataluña are down over 50 percent compared to last year. Industry, tourism, and finance are the foundations of the Catalan economy, and these moves could mean the loss of many jobs in Cataluña and an even further reduction in investor confidence. Exports to the rest of Spain and to the European Union are crucial for its economy and for Catalan jobs.

Indeed, the instability that accompanies separatism is not conducive to maintaining and growing a strong economy, and this appears to be Puigdemont’s gift to Catalans regardless of the outcome of this crisis.

Currently, the Catalan language is enshrined in Cataluña. Its culture is rich and world renowned. Its economic strength is the engine of modern Spain. It is known as an autonomy, given its mandate to pass laws that provide Catalans with a political and legal context in which to live their lives and culture freely.

It is one thing for a minority to seek independence from a national government that is not democratic or attacks or restricts their right to exist or other basic human rights but Spain is a vibrant, multi-cultural and multi-linguistic country, in which individual and cultural rights are enshrined in a constitution that was voted for by 90 percent of Catalans in 1978, and in which the rule of law reigns.

Unrestricted nationalism was a major plague in the 19th and 20th centuries, resulting in tens of millions of deaths and many more refugees and victims of nationalistic wars. Spain itself suffered tremendously from a divisive civil war and this movement opens up deep, divisive wounds and major risks that Spanish society and central government have sought to heal since the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.

The European Union was founded by visionary leaders who saw that nationalism could only be reined in by solidarity and union. By respect for all in a common political, economic, and social project. Their objective was to tear down walls and build bridges that would unite Europeans in a common purpose. Catalan independence appears to be an attempt to break off from this unity and build a wall where bridges currently exist.

As well, Catalan independence would open a Pandora’s box few in Europe would wish for. The fabric of Europe would unravel quickly if other minorities in other states were to engage actively in promoting their independence and the dissolution of their motherlands. Europe would quickly descend into a quagmire that would affect whatever global stability currently exists.

For Cataluña to declare its independence from Spain is illegal under the Spanish constitution. Puigdemont wisely stepped back from fully implementing this illegal step and allowed for space for Madrid and Barcelona to manoeuver and walk back from the brink of a very messy outcome. Walk back towards what remains to be seen. For his part, Mr. Rajoy also cleverly avoided falling into the trap or taking decisive action before Mr. Puigdemont clarified his position. The ball is now in the Catalan court.

What Cataluña needs now is an immediate state election to see if Puigdemont can achieve a majority government on the basis of his call for independence in order to dialogue with Madrid with a new mandate. The Spanish constitution has provisions for this, and this election would be held with the normal preparation and scrutiny expected in a democratic election.

Some observers say that Mr. Puigdemont may not welcome an election at this time since the silent majority that demonstrated in favor of unity with Spain on October 8th might vote in force and tilt the political landscape against his political project. As well, his erstwhile coalition colleagues could undermine him given his lackluster speech on October 10th.

In any case, a quick election is required with each Catalan pro-independence party describing in clear detail what it would seek from negotiations with Madrid so that Catalans can vote with clarity of purpose and transparency of objectives.

Absent this, Spanish society and the Spanish economy will continue to flounder in uncertainty and the world will wonder why a vibrant democracy is teetering on the edge of an unnecessary abyss.

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