Are We Better Off?

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Afp
La Jornada Maya

Martes 8 de enero, 2019

In 1980, then U.S. presidential candidate Ronald Reagan asked voters if they were better off than they had been four years earlier when Jimmy Carter was elected. The voters responded “no”, and voted accordingly.

This week marked the end of 2018, and the beginning of 2019. It is wise to ask, “Is the world better off than it was a year ago?”

I'm afraid not.

The civil war in Syria seems to be winding down. After over five hundred thousand killed, six million internally displaced refugees and five million more scattered around the world, little has changed. Bashar Assad remains in power appearing to have defeated the hope that arose with the Arab Spring in 2011, and continues his bloody rule over a bitterly destroyed country.

The only winners here are Assad and his followers who have retained power, Russia and Iran who have strengthened their position in the Middle East, and the Hezbollah, who will continue to enjoy the patronage of the Assad government in their war against Israel. Iran will now likely control a geographical arc of influence from its own territory across Western Asia to the Lebanese and Syrian shores of the Mediterranean.

The civil war in Yemen continues to take tens of thousands of lives as Iran and Saudi Arabia, through their proxies, vie for control over this strategic land.

Sudi Arabia continues to feel the impact of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and its erstwhile strongman Mohammad Bin Salman faces increasing challenges in his attempt to move Saudi Arabia into the 21st century despite his acting like a 19th century despot.

The United Kingdom (UK) faces the real possibility of a Brexit without a deal with the European Union (EU). The Brexit campaign has divided the nation to such a degree that it faces a secessionist movement in Scotland should the UK leave the EU in March. In the meanwhile, Theresa May’s government continues to flounder, strengthening the position of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a sixties style leftist with few concrete answers to the challenges facing 21st century Britain.

French President Emmanuel Macron faces a sharp decline in popularity after violent confrontations forced him to rescind unpopular new carbon taxes. This underscored how out of touch his government is with the electorate. Should such conditions continue, voter frustration might find succor in the right-wing populism that is currently gaining strength in Europe.

Spain pain faces increasing internal strife as the machinations of Catalan separatists continue unabated while the national coalition government faces economic and political challenges. In addition, the Spanish monarchy is under attack. The King emeritus (Juan Carlos) faces accusations of corruption, his daughter (Princess Cristina) and her husband have been convicted of financial malfeasance, and the current Queen (Letizia) appears to be in a battle royal with the emeritus Queen (Sofia). A soap opera in the making. The Spanish monarchy, widely credited with overseeing a smooth transition to democracy, may well lose its credibility and unifying power as republican sentiment grows.

To further complicate things, the extreme right-wing party VOX won twelve seats in the Andalusian parliament late in 2018 on a national platform that includes no specific plans for the region. VOX rejects Spain’s decentralized system that has devolved powers to the regions (known in Spanish as the Estado autonómico), even though this system is encoded in the Spanish Constitution.

This marks the first time since the end of the Franco dictatorship that the extreme right has won seats in a legislature, and it underscores the frustration that some sectors of Spanish society have with political leaders who appear weak, divided, and unable to provide the leadership that the country requires to stay united.

The United States under Donald Trump continues to marginalize its allies and seems hell bent on destabilizing the political, economic, trade, and military alliances that have served it well since the end of World War II. There is a perception amongst many that the impact of his governance will take years to overcome, if ever. It remains to be seen if a future U.S. leader can once again capture the respect the U.S. enjoyed internationally until the Trump presidency.

With All That said, the major winners in 2018 were Russia and China.

Vladimir Putin has achieved what no other Soviet or Russian leader has: the dismantling of Western solidarity and institutions. He has strengthened Russia’s position in the Middle East and much of Eastern Europe, and appears to have formed strategic alliances with the growing extreme right-wing movements that are rearing their heads across the European continent.

As well, the Trump presidency appears to have capitulated to Putin’s global leadership. Trump himself continues to avoid criticizing Russia and its leader while continuously calling out U.S. allies around the world. The increasing isolation of the United States under Trump’s “America First” policy has shaken the global community and left many wondering where we are all headed.

China continues with its ambitious “Belt and Road Initiative”, investing massively in infrastructure projects around the world through grants and loans. China’s influence is growing among leaders who want to enjoy the economic advantages of China’s apparent largesse without the demands for respect for human and political rights, a free media, and strong democratic institutions that the West imposes.

So where do we go?

That is a question for all of us to decide as we consider the various political and economic options available to our societies. It will depend on how involved we become in our own governance. And it will require our holding our leaders to far higher standards of honesty than has hitherto been the case.

It will depend on all of us demanding that political leaders respect both each other and voters, and work to strengthen democratic institutions and respectful dialogue both nationally and internationally.

It will also require making some hard decisions that put our western values to the test, such as choosing between money from trade and arms sales versus respect for human rights. We must also protect and develop a strong middle class in the face of a slowing global economy. Finally, we must push for stronger education programs to prepare our children for the future, while at the same time seeking leaders who promote global cooperation on free but fair trade, climate change and how to manage artificial intelligence.

We must strengthen rather than disrupt the multilateral institutions that have brought global stability since 1945 and helped avoid a third world war. These institutions can be modernized and reformed to fit the realities of this new century and respond to the needs of citizens wary of globalization, yet requiring variations of these institutions to address the myriad global challenges humanity faces.

With drawing from the global stage is no longer an option. The nations of the world must engage in a constructive way putting the fate of humanity over a nationalism whose time has come and gone and is no longer feasible in today’s global village.

Absent a growing dialogue supporting this vision, 2019 may well offer more of the same.

[b][email protected][/b]