Whither Globalization?

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Reuters
La Jornada Maya

Miércoles 8 de abril, 2020

Last week I wrote about the COVID-19 pandemic as being a watershed in human history. I discussed the impact that it is having on our daily lives, on how we learn, work, and conduct ourselves.

But what about its impact on the vision and reality that have guided us over the past three decades – globalization? What has happened to this dream, born when the Berlin Wall fell and the world seemed on its way to a global consensus on key political and economic issues?

That consensus was seen as being led by the United States and buttressed by a United Nations that found strength in unity during the first Gulf War and existed in a world that seemed to be armed with a rules-based political and economic system in which all could prosper and Western style liberal democracy could flourish everywhere.

Instead, the current situation has been summed up by former Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt in a recent tweet in which he said “this is the first crisis of the post-American world. The UN Security Council is nowhere to be found, the G-20 is in the hands of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the White House has trumpeted America First and Everyone Alone for years. Only the virus is globalized”.

The dream that arose out of the ashes of the former Soviet Union began to unravel when Vladimir Putin took power in Russia, bent on recovering Russia’s position as a global superpower and its former spheres of influence, and as China ascended to the status of economic and manufacturing superpower.

These two countries now serve as a potent counterweight to U.S. hegemony as that country struggles to extricate itself from trillion-dollar wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, suffered a major economic and financial breakdown in 2008, and suffer from a deep political polarization that has all but paralyzed its ability to deal with major issues at home and abroad.

Donald Trump’s “America First” policies have provided China and Russia with the gift that they always sought but were historically unable to obtain on their own – the fragmentation of Western alliances and institutions since Trump has been in office. His attacks on his own country’s democratic institutions have set an example for others seeking to move away from liberal democracy and towards more authoritarian or autocratic models of government.

According to an analysis by Horizon Advisory, a consultancy that investigates Chinese policy on behalf of corporations, investors and government agencies in the U.S., China’s central planners are taking every advantage of the democratic world’s predicament. “Beijing intends to use the global dislocation and downturn to attract foreign investment, to seize strategic market share and resources—especially those that force dependence, and to proliferate global information systems,” the Horizon Advisory analysts conclude. “Beijing used the opening presented by the 2008 economic downturn to reach parity; to position itself as an alternative world leader. In COVID-19, Beijing sees the chance to win.”

It has also led to questions about why, when the rest of the world is on lock-down, China’s political capital of Beijing and financial capital of Shanghai appear to have been spared the ravages suffered by Italy and Spain as well as New York City. Indeed, China is resuming its economic and financial activities when the world’s manufacturing activities are frozen and markets are collapsing on all sides.

Food for thought.

Despite initial global condemnation of the Chinese regime’s decision to hide the pandemic from the international community for almost two months, its recent strategy of using public diplomacy in the form of massive contributions to major victims of the pandemic, together with a sophisticated disinformation campaign to create alternative conspiracy theories about the origins of the pandemic already seem to be working.

Chinese workers are slowly returning to their factories, and Chinese companies are beginning to manufacture the medical equipment required to meet global demand. Last week, China sent thousands of respirators to New York City since the Trump administration has proven unable to address the pandemic in an efficient and effective way.

China is also cash rich, and will be a major power in the reconstruction of the global economy, most likely aligning it with its own interests.

Historically, China has been governed by a social compact that has given the Communist Party full control, and it in turn provides security and prosperity for its people. The regime’s management of the pandemic has called into question this relationship as millions of Chinese have taken to government-run social media to criticize the fact that leaders lied to them and let the pandemic get out of hand for political reasons.

In Europe, Hungary’s parliament gave its nationalist populist leader Viktor Orban unlimited power two weeks ago. Poland is in a similar position, and Russia’s President Putin has navigated himself into a position of power for life. The European Union has not taken any steps to ensure the viability of democratic rule in its Eastern front, nor has it taken any steps to wean itself from an almost total dependency on Russian oil and gas. This has shown that the Union is certainly not providing any leadership on key issues of governance among its member states and cannot as well extricate itself from overbearing Russian influence.

Putin is a strong supporter of nationalist movements around the world. Indeed, since globalization and multilateral institutions are perceived to be Western constructs and democratic in their aspirations, he is allied with anyone who opposes this world view.

It is no longer a question of left versus right. It is a question of nationalism versus globalism and liberal democracy versus authoritarianism. And globalism, as once envisioned by Westerners, appears to be losing ground quickly, being replaced with Russian and Chinese spheres of influence that are gaining strength as Western leadership falls into disarray and the U.S.’s sphere of influence dwindles.

Indeed, while Trump has accepted a renewed trilateral trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, his decision last week to forbid the export of surgical masks and medical equipment to Canada has put great pressure on the stability of the largest bilateral trading relationship in the world.

The United Nations is deadlocked, and the Security Council has been unable to emit a single resolution or offer any leadership to deal with the current pandemic, leaving it to individual member states to find their own way. It is easy to blame the Secretary-General. But he can never act without a mandate from the Security Council, and mandates have not been forthcoming.

Hence Syria, Yemen, and Libya continue to take hundreds of thousands of lives and create millions of refugees. That said, a U.N. Secretary General who is determined to lead has nothing to lose by using this bully pulpit strategically and aggressively and openly call rogue states out for their actions that go against the interests of humanity or international law. There is a difference between management and leadership and, unfortunately, the UN today appears to bereft of the latter.

The World Health Organization has also proven impotent in coordinating international efforts to meet the challenges of this current pandemic. Its Director General has appeared to be too willing to appease the Chinese government despite its determination to hide the pandemic for its first two months, costing tens of thousands of lives and creating billions of dollars in economic losses for the global economy so far.

It is notable that he was elected with strong Chinese support and lobbying, and that he and his staff were reluctant to speak truth to Chinese power when the pandemic broke out, taking almost three months to declare a global pandemic while lauding China’s management of the pandemic. The poor leadership in a moment of truth has reduced the status of the WHO in the eyes of many.

The European Union, already pressured under Brexit, was unable or unwilling to come to the aid of Spain and Italy – the member states most affected by COVID 19. Indeed, this calls into question the role of the EU as a global force, and may lead some to wonder if the BREXITEERS were not correct in assuming that the United Kingdom would be better off on its own.

Adding to this collective incompetence and impotence of global institutions is the almost constant attacks on the European Union and the other major Western multilateral institution – NATO -- by the Trump administration which has abandoned the traditional leadership role of the USA and has helped strengthen the hand of traditional enemies.

The Russians and Chinese always knew that the UN and EU are weak and rife with divisions among member states, and have only made use of them when it has suited their purposes. The only counterweight until recently has been the U.S.’s role as the world’s policeman – something that Trump opposed from the very start of his mandate.

You might not like Trump, but the fecklessness of the UN and EU are proving the validity of his views with respect to their contributions to U.S. interests as being right in the eyes of his followers.

The pandemic is contributing to the emergence of governments seeking constitutional changes to give leaders broader powers. If the result is to reduce the authority of parliaments and the judiciaries, as well as the emasculation of a free media, you have a possible return to a 19th century world, with all of the dangers that this entails for global security and peace.

THE WORLD HAS a narrow window of opportunity to reverse these trends.

Firstly, it requires the defeat of Trump at the polls in November. Absent his disappearance from the White House, and the election of a leader who can begin to heal the wounds of division within the United States and amongst its allies, Western democratic liberalism will continue to flounder.

Add to this already volatile mix the massive socio-economic dislocation provoked by the pandemic – the tens of millions of jobs lost, savings depleted, international trade diminished, and hope lost, and one has a toxic mix unseen since the Great Depression.

Whether the global social fabric can withstand these strains remains to be seen.

Can leaders stem the flow of autarchic remedies for the international trading system? Can they justify putting the manufacture and distribution of strategic products in the hands of other countries, or will they revert to advocating what Doug Ford, Premier (Prime Minister) of Canada’s province of Ontario recently said “there is no product that Ontario cannot produce”.

While autarchic models have failed in the past, the current model of globalization is also showing its weaknesses as questioned by the neo nationalists at its doors.

Is this a far-off situation or are we getting closer to mainstream political leaders also advocating renewed nationalism as an antidote for the world’s ills? Can democracies survive as tens of millions of dispossessed people demand their share of the wealth and become increasingly attracted to the siren songs of populists and dictators as they did in the 1930’s?

Are there any leaders on the political horizon with the global clout to come up with a vision that can pacify the disenfranchised and create new national and international institutions and consensus that can address their needs in much the same way as Franklin Delano Roosevelt did in the United States after the Great Depression?

Are there any leaders who can come together to forge a consensus to meet the needs of humanity rather than narrow national interests regardless of their impact on the global community?

And, is it realistic to hope for such a political vision in today’s climate?

Questions to be pondered, but pondered quickly, because the health pandemic is proving to also be one of leadership and its impact is already being felt globally.

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Edición: Ana Ordaz