The Middle East

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Afp
La Jornada Maya

Martes 28 de mayo, 2019

I am currently teaching a course on Middle Eastern history at the Universidad del Valle de Mexico in Merida. The final assignment for this term was “The Future of the Middle East” for which I asked my students to apply what they had learned and to give their predictions the future of this troubled and turbulent region.

During the term, we analyzed the Arab Spring, terrorism, developments in Egypt, Israel and the Arab world, and other aspects of the situation in the Middle East.

We focused on the lack of effective and representative governance in the Middle East, the terrible poverty, misery, lack of hope, and societal corruption endemic in this region. We realized that the Arab world suffers from three fundamental challenges: the first, a lack of consensus on common unifying values; the second, the lack of visionary, honest, and inclusive leaders who respect the will of their people; and, the third, the presence of violent extremists and the clash of Sunni and Shia Islam in their midst, all vying for political and psychological control.

We concluded that the forces of colonialism had robbed the Arabs of opportunities to fully develop their own institutions based on Arab values and culture, forcing upon them either foreign conceived institutions or the sad reality of military or personality-based dictatorships.

Colonial powers forced borders and dynasties on Arabs across North Africa and the Middle East based on their own parochial interests. Among these interests were oil, European colonial interests and, after World War II, the need for regional dominance given the ideological and geopolitical struggle between the West and the Soviet Bloc in the post-war era.

Current borders were originally set in the 1920’s and 30’s with no reference to the realities or aspirations of the local populations. Colonial powers left no governance institutions capable of taking Arab societies forward in a world that was rapidly evolving. This was the foundation of governance that Western powers bequeathed to Arab states.

In the late 1990’s, while the fall of the Berlin Wall led to the development of democracies across the former Soviet Bloc, life and politics remained the same for the Arab world. The only apparent unifying force was the Arab world’s continued rejection of the creation of the State of Israel back in 1948. Yet even here, the Arab states could not come together to defeat what they saw as an alien force in their midst. Indeed, in 1979 Egypt made its peace with Israel and, in 1994, Jordan followed suit -- further dividing the Arab world.

Why haven’t the Arab states been able to come together in any meaningful way?

Here are a few suggestions for consideration.

The first is a lack of consensus on the values that bind them.

Islam is divided: it is Sunni versus Shia, Islamist versus modernist, and moderate Muslim versus jihadist.

A successful society must come together and agree on a set of governing values within which a social contract can be struck. To date, the Arab world lacks such a unifying consensus.

Although the Arab Spring was a major step in beginning to identify the potential of cross-border unity of action for a set of values, it failed due to a lack of both a strong, charismatic, honest leadership and a plan of action that would lead to the creation of political institutions and policies that responded to Arab culture and was acceptable to the vast majority of Arab society.

In my view, the Arab Spring only succeeded in part in Tunisia as a result of consensus building between the main actors in the uprisings and the creation of a constitution and government that was inclusive and had room for all.

Many would argue that Arab countries needed a few Nelson Mandelas then as they do now to lead their citizens towards a consensus that is essential for nation-building.

Arab countries need leaders who seek power not for their own aggrandizement or to build his or her own personal power and wealth. Leaders capable of setting out a vision to which the vast majority of Arabs can subscribe; able to lead in the crafting of institutions of governance based on the fundamental values shared by a vast majority of Arabs and not institutions imposed by or copied from foreign models.

The imposition of alien models of governance throughout history in the Arab world has led to failure. The latest intent to do so is the so-called Middle East Plan crafted by Jared Kushner – President Trump’s son-in-law – that the U.S. plans to force on Palestinians and Israelis sometime soon. This so-called “deal of the century” (President Trump’s own words) appears to ignore the demand by Palestinians for their own state based on 1967 borders – as U.N. Security Council Resolution 242 stipulates. Once again, an outside power is trying to impose a policy on the Middle East. Can it succeed when regional players have failed after seventy years?

What is required is a revolution of mentalities – one that has thus far been lacking in Arab history.

It requires leaders who can meld the past and the future into an amalgam of values and institutions that allow for good governance and also provide an entrée into the modern world.

Leaders who can put an end to the alienation of Arab youth.

Alienation leads many towards violent alternatives. Indeed, Daesh and Al Qaeda welcome both Arab and non-Arab Muslims who are fleeing what they see as the current corruption of Arab governments or the infiltration of perceived Western decadence. They have turned to radical Islam as a panacea for these perceived ills, and these organizations in turn promise facile, and, oftentimes, destructive and atrocious, solutions to their existential angst.

Leaders who can lead their societies to adopt policies that free women from their traditional subservient role and allow then to participate fully in the economic and political lives of their countries.

Leaders who could meld Islamic values and tribal folkways with modern concepts of human and political rights.

And, finally, could such leaders address Palestinian aspirations for statehood when; a) Palestinian leaders twice rejected peace deals that would have given them 98 per cent of what they sought in terms of territory and the governance required to satisfy their need for independence as well as for Israel’s need for security and; b) the current Israeli government no longer supports a two-state solution?

The Arab Spring may have ended in failure in all countries but Tunisia, but its residue lingers on as a sign of hope the future generation of Arabs. Today, armed with a disgust for the status quo and enjoying modern communications technologies, it is only a matter of time before the Arab street once again rises up.

To succeed, protesters will need a consensus-based plan of action (one that incorporates an inclusive governance model) and a number of leaders capable of leading their respective revolutions while also of ensuring that a broad swathe of society feels included and empowered in their vision. Leaders who can articulate the goals and desired outcomes of the uprising, and provide a road-map for what will occur after the uprisings succeed. Only then can Arab leaders address the issue of terrorism and radical Islam.

Finally, they will have to come to terms with Israel.

A number of Arab states are currently cooperating with Israel in their conflict with Iran. Egypt and Jordan have diplomatic relations. Other Arab states are cooperating with Israel on security issues, specifically the threat of Iranian expansionism. These could well develop into broader relations given the momentum of potential synergies between Israelis and Arabs.

Israel has a lot to offer to the Arab world.

It is a technological powerhouse and an agricultural force. Israeli technology can help Arabs catapult into the 21st century. Agricultural and water-management techniques can help turn Arab deserts into the food production centers that exponentially growing Arab populations need. They can also serve as a generator of jobs to absorb the high levels of unemployed currently facing permanent frustration in Arab economies. Israel’s advances in high tech medical, communications, software and artificial intelligence can also contribute to an economic revolution in the Arab world.
But the elephant in the room is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

There are some indications that the Saudis may well accept the realpolitik of the region and accept the proposed U.S. peace plan to be announced next June. Indeed, there are reports that the Saudis have told the Palestinian leadership that this deal is the best that they can expect.

Can their Arab allies coalesce around the Saudis and bring a new status quo to the region – one in which Palestinians forego a completely independent state in return for a large economic aid package to help develop the Palestinian economy while allowing Israel to annex a good part of the West Bank?

If so, will the Arab street follow this lead given decades of anti-Israeli propaganda?

Finally, will Arab leaders take on the forces of Hezbollah and Hamas to ensure that some type of Arab consensus can be achieved?

These are some of the questions that the region faces and that no one can yet answer. One thing is for sure: the fate of the Middle East lies not in lamenting past foreign imposed governance models or lost military battles. It lies, rather, in the ability of the Arab world to develop new indigenous models of governance to move their societies into the modern age.

And absent this, no one may be in a position to answer these questions in the foreseeable future.

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