Amateur Hour in Canada

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Ap
La Jornada Maya

Martes 5 de marzo, 2019

It looks like amateur hour in Canadian politics, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in deep trouble.

The sad thing is that it is indeed a crisis that didn’t have to happen.

As reported in an earlier column, Canada’s Prime Minister is thought by many to have demoted Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould when she refused to go along with perceived pressure from his office to not prosecute Canadian engineering giant SNC-Lavalin but, rather, negotiate a deal whereby the company would pay a fine but would not be convicted of felonious conduct thus precluding it from participating in national and international contracts.

While the decision not to prosecute would have been legal, it was completely up to the Justice Minister to take that decision. The perception that the Prime Minister and his senior advisors may have pressured her to take a decision favorable to meet the Liberal party’s political needs in voter-rich Quebec has left a bad taste among many Canadians regardless of legalities. This was compounded by her subsequent demotion which left the distinct appearance that she was punished for her decision and replaced with a new Justice Minister more amenable to the Prime Minister’s view on the issue. Since the story broke, the government’s disastrous communications management in this instance has left many wondering about the competence of the Prime Minister and his communications team as he flounders on the national stage.

On February 27th, the former Justice Minister sat before a Parliamentary Committee and described in detail how the Prime Minister and others in his entourage exerted strong pressure for her to make this legal decision. Although she said that she didn’t think her conversations with Trudeau and members of his staff were illegal, she stated that they were intimidating, persistent and caused her major discomfort.

Upon his election in 2015, Justin Trudeau positioned himself as a bright new leader who would do politics differently. He contrasted his government’s transparency and accessibility with his predecessor’s perceived aloofness and penchant for secrecy.

He appeared to be an excellent communicator, in touch with average Canadians, and capable of providing an open and honest government. He was seen as a 21st century leader capable of changing traditional politics. He was a positive campaigner and appeared to have an excellent communications team.

This view is now tarnished, perhaps beyond repair.

Attempts to pressure the Justice Minister were a major political mistake in a country where the legal system has always been seen and structured to be independent of political interference. This is a cornerstone of Canada’s judicial system, and the perception of interference is not accepted by most Canadians regardless of the reason.

Trudeau’s reason for shuffling Wilson-Raybould out of the Justice ministry appears ludicrous and has left Canadians wondering about the Prime Minister’s seriousness and the his rather vacuous response to the former Justice Minister’s statements to the Parliamentary Committee has left me wondering where his strategic communications team is.

Rather than accept responsibility and tell Canadians how he would ensure that his government would never again engage in such activities, he decided to use the backdrop of a local political event celebrating the election of a new Member of Parliament to comment on Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. There, he was surrounded by smiling and laughing Liberal parliamentarians, creating an aura of frivolity.

The next day, rather than try to correct perceptions that he is not taking the criticism and concern of many Canadians seriously, he decided to distract Canadians by announcing that Canada will go to the moon as part of a new space strategy.

Trying to distract the media and voters from the main story is an oft-used trick by embattled politicians.

Unfortunately, in the eyes of many Canadians, it puts Trudeau in a similar light as President Donald Trump, an expert in distraction politics.

So where is Canada today?

With a leader who is appearing to bumble through a major political mess.

With a leader who appears to have little respect for perceptions of acceptable political behavior.

And with a leader who has demonstrated poor political and communications judgment.

In this case, Trudeau has demonstrated the kind of political hubris and arrogance that has frustrated voters across the globe. With voter exasperation rising everywhere, and populist leaders fueling these frustrations, Trudeau has gone from positive messages and image of the 2015 campaign to an elitist and entitled government that it has lost its ability to deliver the new kind of politics that it promised in the last election campaign.

With an opposition that sometimes seems to espouse the populism currently on the rise around the world, and with allies at the provincial level doing the same, I fear that this mess is only to the detriment of what I consider to be the good governance needed to promote and sustain democratic liberalism.

The underpinnings of success in politics are consistency, credibility and transparency in order to sell a message that appeals to the majority of voters and create positive results.

The practice of leadership requires humility and the ability to admit mistakes, take decisions to rectify mistakes, and promise not to repeat them.

As the fall election looms in Canada, voters will be asking where is the remorse and where is the commitment to change.

What is the vision that Trudeau will offer voters, and what are the results he can claim without being criticized for political incompetence and dishonesty in managing this episode.

In my view, Trudeau and his Liberals do not have convincing answers to date.

For many voters, Trudeau will never be the same again. The gilt is off the lily, and he will now be perceived by many as just another politician.

While 8 months can be an eternity in politics, the opposition parties are waiting in the wings, and voter frustration with Trudeau and his government could lead to defeat in the fall.

Is there a solution?

At this point, much damage has been done to the Trudeau brand.

He might be able to salvage his chances before the fall elections if he appears to a) come clean and tell the whole story, b) end his confusing and often unbelievable messages c) take steps to reduce the power of his Prime Minister’s Office.

Most importantly, Trudeau must stop trying to dismiss this situation with sound bite explanations at major political events and address the nation specifically and exclusively with a series of coherent and believable messages to put an end to rampant speculation and begin to rebuild his and his government’s credibility.

In addition, he should consider separating the offices of Attorney General and Justice Minister so that the Attorney General is independent and no longer a member of Cabinet and is thus less exposed to political pressure.

Will this be enough?

No one knows at this point, but the outlook does not look good for the Prime Minister.

Some Liberal parliamentarians are reportedly privately musing that Trudeau may have to go if the party is to succeed in being reelected. Indeed, just before we went to press, another cabinet minister, Jane Philpott, resigned in support of Wilson-Raybould. She too was seen as a highly competent minister.

In her letter to the Prime Minister, Philpott wrote that she was disconcerted by the perceived pressure brought to bear on Wilson-Raybould, and concluded that she had lost confidence in the government. Both she and Wilson-Raybould have said that they will continue to sit as Liberal members of parliament despite their resignations from cabinet.

So where do the Liberals go from here?

Can Trudeau maintain paste over the fractures in cabinet and in the Liberal caucus in the wake of these resignations?

And, if not, who could replace him?

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is extremely popular, highly competent, and well respected across Canada and around the world. She has proclaimed her continuing support for and confidence in the embattled leader. But she would be a viable alternative to lead Liberals in the fall election should pressure be brought to bear on Trudeau to resign soon for the good of the Party’s electoral chances in the fall, should he not be able to reverse his current downward slide.

Can the impact of this current situation affect people beyond Canada’s borders?

It may well.

If Trudeau loses the Prime Ministership in the fall election, this, along with the impending withdrawal from the global political scene of Angela Merkel in 2021 and the current implosion of the Macron government in France, will leave few if any strong and charismatic liberal democratic leaders to challenge the onslaught of autocratic populism currently on the rise everywhere.

And this poses a real danger to liberal democracy around the world.

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