Guatemala

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Afp
La Jornada Maya

Martes 15 de enero, 2019

I spent last week in Guatemala where a political crisis involving the United Nations, the international community, and Guatemala’s ability to govern itself unfolded.

In 2006, the Guatemalan government and the United Nations signed an agreement creating the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG as per its Spanish initials). Its function has been to support the justice system in pursuing corruption and impunity, and strengthen legal institutions in a country in which they historically have been weak. The current term for CICIG was to end in September of this year.

However, guatemalan president Jimmy Morales decided on January 6th to break Guatemala’s commitment to the U.N. to maintain the CICIG and, in fact, gave it 24 hours to leave the country. This is a result of the fact that the commission is now investigating the President and some of his followers for corruption and election irregularities.

The internacional CICIG team finally left Guatemala on January 8th.

By removing the CICIG from Guatemala the Morales government attacked a viable institution that addresses the needs of all Guatemalans for transparent and honest government. At the time of writing, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres rejected the Guatemalan demand and insisted that Guatemala must respect international agreements.

Morales is using a common ploy favored by many would-be populist authoritarian leaders – pitting “us” against “them” -- in this case, calling on Guatemalans to rally around the flag against what it is positioning as an attack against its sovereignty.

A majority of Guatemalans with whom I spoke with were fed up with a system of corruption older than the country itself and with political leaders and parties that can’t, or won’t, take decisive action to strengthen democratic institutions, punish the guilty, and avoid becoming corrupt themselves.

Morales came to office with the promise that, unlike other candidates, he was not a crook.

Yet the fact that the CICIG is investigating the President and those close to him indicates that Morales may not have lived up to this promise. He has not changed the system as he had promised Guatemalans. Rather, he is now simply trying to change perceptions by shifting the focus from investigating malfeasance to painting himself as the defender of Guatemalan sovereignty.

The guatemalan constitutional Court has deemed Mr. Morales’s actions illegal, and the government’s decision is seen by many as another step in an attempt to attack democratic institutions that have had a tragic history in Guatemala and remain weak. Not respecting the constitutional order is a serious precedent that does not auger well for Guatemalan democracy.

Guatemala is a republic with a democratic constitution.

Howeve, real power lies in the CACIF (Spanish acronym for the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial, and Financial Organizations) -- the main private sector organization – as well as the army that for many years ruled by dictatorships often with very tragic consequences.

The international community is up in arms about this capricious decision, especially after years of supporting the CICIG process financially and politically. As many as 50 percent of Guatemalans oppose the government’s actions, according to recent polls, since reform of the judicial system is essential if the country is to turn its back on its violent past and create a more equitable and just society.

So, what can be done?

The United Nations could take the issue to the Security Council for action against the Guatemalan government.

However, the Trump administration dislikes the United Nations. So, would the United States support some form of punitive action?

Maybe not.

President Trump himself faces various serious investigations himself and he might well sympathize with the Guatemalan leader and his friends.

Dowa the rest of the international community have any pressure that they can bring upon the Guatemalan government to change its mind on CICIG?

I think not. That ship has sailed and the CICIG will not return.

I truly believe that the way ahead is one of compromise.

The international community has invested significant political and financial capital in the CICIG process. Whether CICIG leaves today or in September, the objective must be to consolidate the progress made to date and ensure that the systems put in place by CICIG continue to strengthen and serve the Guatemalan people.

In this regard, the international community should approach the Morales government with an offer to work with a Guatemalan institution that would take over from CICIG and continue its work, but avoid the appearance of foreign intervention in internal Guatemalan politics.

The quid pro quo is that the international community would not brand Guatemala as a pariah state or impose any sanctions. This would give Morales a face-saving way out of a major confrontation with the United Nations and the international community, and give the international community at least some assurances that all may not be lost.

It remains disconcerting to see yet another country join the growing list of states in which governments in power are eroding or attempting to erode the power of independent constitutional organs of government in order to consolidate power in the hands of the few. Just a few weeks ago, an authoritarian populist was elected in Brazil. Authoritarian populists now govern in a number of Latin American countries, and, in the United States, we are watching President Trump’s attacks on the institutions of democracy (the media, the Congress, the courts, the Federal Reserve System) with a cautious eye.

Democracy in Guatemala and elsewhere must be protected and sheltered in its weakest manifestations. The problem is that, absent a global commitment to securing this objective, populist autocrats will continue to attack the very foundations of representative democracy with little opposition.

In Guatemala this week, thirteen nations have taken a stand, although they were not successful in keeping CICIG alive. Nevertheless, this global movement in opposition to authoritarian populism must continue to make itself felt in Guatemala and around the world.

Let's see how it plays out.

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