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New Challenges, Old Responses

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Foto: Reuters

The confrontation between China and several countries over China’s mistreatment of its minorities and Russia’s threats against Ukraine represent good examples of addressing a 21st Century crisis with 19th Century tools.

The U.S., Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom, among others, have announced a “diplomatic” boycott of the Beijing Olympics. This means that these countries will not be sending diplomatic representatives to attend the games.

Ouch!

While the Chinese are making a lot of noise over this perceived slight, they must be laughing inside. 

The Games will continue, the repression and genocide will continue, and the actions which the West is trying to call attention to will proceed unchecked.

When the West boycotted the Moscow Games in 1980 over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, nothing changed. The USSR stayed in Afghanistan for nine more years as though nothing had happened.

Today, Russia threatens Ukraine with invasion, and the West threatens Russia with economic boycotts.

Boycotts can only work if you hit your opponent where it really hurts.

Russian President Putin and his oligarchical allies have two vulnerabilities: their wallets and their Muslim minorities. The West has the technology to raid Putin’s assets abroad as well as those of his oligarchical allies and freeze them until he and his allies yield.

The West can also work with their Muslim allies (Chechens in Russia and Uyghurs in China) to cause major disruptions to both countries’ security and stability.

Neither Putin nor Chinese President Xi Ji-ping can be reasoned with nor trusted. Both are narcissistic dictators whose main raison d’etre is to perpetuate their hold on absolute power. 

Why do they challenge the West and the international rules-based system? 

Because they know that they can. 

They know that most Western citizens will not countenance putting their youth at risk by putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. They know that sanctions have not hurt their personal pocketbooks. 

The Russians know that Western Europeans cannot stop utilizing Russian gas. 

The Chinese know that Western states will not put at risk their massive investments in China nor stop the flow of Chinese dollars into their economies, nor will Western consumers stand for their massive consumption of Chinese products to suffer. 

It seems to me that the only way to address Russian and Chines misbehavior is through stealth.

Yet, the Pentagon continues to expect an $800 billion budget for next year for jets and other hardware that proved ineffective in Afghanistan and, previously, in Vietnam.

Last year, the Taliban drove the U.S. and the West out of Afghanistan after a fruitless eighteen-year war. A ragtag army of seventh century zealots drove out the world’s mightiest armed forces just as they did with the Russians and the British before.

Is there a lesson to be learned?

Yes, it is that one cannot fight today’s battles with yesterday’s mindset.

The globe is too interconnected for most boycotts to work effectively.

Should the West boycott China over its practices against the Uyghurs, they will likely react, and the global economy will suffer serious damage with many westerners either lacking access to needed goods, being forced to pay higher prices and/or losing their jobs in the ensuing economic slowdown. Are consumers everywhere from New York to London or Frankfurt willing to pay higher prices as vendors seek replacement sources from more expensive producers?

Should the West boycott Russia, Western Europe will likely suffer from the Russians cutting off its gas supply. Both sides would suffer crippling effects to their economies.

Are Western publics willing to wage a war, sacrificing young lives, over the Ukraine, complete with boots on the ground and the possible but unlikely threat of nuclear war?

In addition to Russia and China, a number of other countries are following the authoritarian models of government espoused by these two great powers. 

Iran continues its quest to resuscitate the Persian Empire of old by challenging the West in 

Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. India is veering closer to becoming nationalist Hinduism with little regard for its large Muslim and Buddhist populations. While Africa is beset by violence from both governments and terrorist groups fighting over territory, religion, and control of strategic materials, China and Russia continue to expand their influence using investment that the West is unable or unwilling to match.

Indeed, the fight for strategic materials is underway in Africa, with forces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo fighting for lithium, a main component in battery technology for high tech devices and electric vehicles. 

And on it goes with the main worrying trend being that we seem to have run out of either the ideas or the willingness needed to find new ways to engage in constructive bilateral and multilateral relations and dealing with authoritarian regimes.

All their elites have their personal ill-gained assets in Western economies. 

That is their Achilles heel.

We have the tools to identify and confiscate them.

Is it time to go for it?


Keep reading: Truckers in Canada

 

[email protected]

 

Edición: Laura Espejo


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