2024: Some possibilities

U.S. President Joe Biden will be 82 years old on election day 2024. Former President Donald Trump will be 78.

This is leading many Americans to ask, “how old is too old?”, and pundits asking what the impact of old age by one or more candidates could have on the 2024 election. 

President Biden has yet to announce running for a second term, although speculation is that he will after the success of his State of the Union speech a few weeks ago and his ability to get complex legislation passed. He has successfully played with the hand that the electorate dealt him in 2022, when the Republicans won the House of Representatives thereby impacting his ability to pass legislation before the 2024 election. 

Biden passed legislation that brought down the prices of many critical medications, he also passed a massive infrastructure bill aimed at creating jobs.

He has managed to put together a strong team that has served him well. By all appearances, they have not demonstrated the conflicts of interests and corruption of the previous administration.

Thus far, no other Democrat has announced plans to challenge the President in 2024 should he finally decide to run, although some may indeed be holding their cards close to their vests.

Donald Trump has formally declared his candidacy and will be 78 years old next election day. He enters likely facing criminal charges at the state and federal level and being criticized, and even disowned, by many in his party.

Along with former South Carolina Governor, and UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, other Republicans are expected to throw their hats in the ring during the next few weeks. This will likely favor the former president. In 2016 he ran against over a dozen candidates, and his divide and conquer strategy (aimed at both Republicans and the American people) allowed him to win the nomination and, subsequently, the election. 

His cabinet and White House were plagued with conflicts of interest, and quite a few of his colleagues have been tried and convicted for their malfeasance during his term in office. He also has the legacy of the January 6th insurrection for which he will probably face the courts when the Attorney General finally gets around to filing charges.

Thus far, polls indicate that Biden would win against Trump or any other Republican candidate. While polls change, and two years is an eternity in politics, the current disarray within the Republican party and the deep fissures dividing pro-Trump and anti-Trump forces do not augur well. Should Trump lose the primaries, he may well go rogue and challenge both candidates thus dividing the right of center vote. 

Biden has something else to consider. 

Given his age, many will wonder if his health will allow him to serve a full term. 

This could lead many voters to examine the ability and popularity of his choice of vice-president.

Current Vice-President Kamala Harris has a 47-48% unfavorable rating. In the eyes of many, she has not shone as Vice-President, and many voters may be put off by a second term for her, with the possibility of her becoming President before the term is up. As well, recently I have seen reports that many Democrats fear that, if Biden doesn’t run, Harris will likely be the Democrat candidate – a possibility some Democrats and many voters do not find appealing. 

Biden will have the choice of keeping her on the ticket and risk losing enough voters to give Republicans a win or finding someone else to accompany him.

Changing candidates from Harris to another candidate could be risky. Biden could be accused by some on the left of his party of taking a decision that could appear to some to be racist and misogynic. 

But, to counter such criticism and avoid a schism within the party, he might decide to invite Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to join the ticket instead. Buttigieg is an intelligent, proven politician capable of connecting well with voters. He is a married gay man, and this may lead some to question of the U.S. is ready for a gay Vice President and, perhaps, President. 

I would caution that many asked if the U.S. was ready for an African American president in 2007, and Barack Obama subsequently won two terms. As well, Kamala Harris ran for the Vice Presidency as a brown woman and the ticket was elected. 

Strategists in both parties have some highly complex political Rubik’s Cubes to twist and turn as they evaluate the viability of the permutations and combinations available to them should both of these possibilities prove real. 

Of course, these equations will change substantially should Biden decide not to run, and Harris not win the nomination. Trump or Florida Governor DeSantis could well possibly win against another Democrat candidate. 

But if Trump and Biden go toe to toe, you can bet that many voters will be asking how old is too old. And the answer they develop to that question could well define how they will vote. 

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Keep reading: Roger Muddies the Waters

Edition: Estefanía Cardeña