Trudeau Under Fire

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Afp
La Jornada Maya

Martes 19 de febrero, 2019

Only a few years ago, liberal democracies looked strong enough to confront populist autocracy.

Canada elected Justin Trudeau in 2015 and he soon became a global media star.

Germany had Angela Merkel, who seemingly continued to have unending popular support garnered after many years of expert leadership.

In 2017, France elected another youthful media star, Emmanuel Macron, and this trinity of leaders seemed to have an answer to the negative and divisive politics of the past twenty years.

This strength is no longer what it was just a year ago.

In the wake of her decline in popularity from the debates on Syrian migration, Angela Merkel has said that she will not run in 2021. This leaves Europe’s most powerful economy seeking strong leadership at a time when the global economic infrastructure is strained by ongoing trade wars (including the still unknown outcome of BREXIT).

Indeed, the world is more politically divided since the fall of the Berlin wall. European unity (upon which global security was predicated for decades) has been reduced to rubble, with Italy and France at loggerheads, extreme right-wing parties in government in many European countries, and the United States seemingly withdrawing from key alliances.

As discussed in previous articles, Emmanuel Macron has misread the mood of his citizens and finds himself in a political morass from which he may eventually emerge, but tainted and tarnished.

And now, Canada’s Justin Trudeau finds himself in a political mess, much of it of his own making.

In 2015, Trudeau named Jody Wilson-Raybould Justice Minister and Attorney General.

She is a prominent indigenous leader and has a strong following in the indigenous and legal communities. She reportedly did a solid job as Justice Minister, shepherding though some complicated legislation on a variety of difficult legal and political issues.

Nevertheless, on January 14, 2019, she was reassigned in what was widely viewed as a demotion to become Minister of Veterans Affairs. Her resignation from the post and from Cabinet on February 12, 2019 has sent shockwaves throughout Canadian politics.

In recent weeks, it has been speculated that the cause of the demotion was her unwillingness to consider the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) request to allow SNC-Lavalin -- a major Quebec-based engineering and consulting firm - to arrive at a negotiated settlement rather than be pursued in the courts.

Given that SNC is a major Quebec-based engineering and consulting firm that in the past has been implicated and convicted of corrupt practices in obtaining national and international contracts, this reported “request” and subsequent demotion is being interpreted as political pressure by the PMO on the Minister of Justice. The fact that Wilson-Raybould is both a woman and of indigenous descent is also being viewed as illustrating the hypocrisy of Mr. Trudeau’s statements about supporting female ministers, aboriginals and government transparency, making him look no better than President Donald Trump.

As a result, Trudeau has created a political crisis that may well threaten his government in the leadup to this year’s national election.

There were two ways to handle the legal aspects of this mess – take the company to trial or negotiate a settlement.

Even though it employs only 3,400 people in a province of over 8 million, the company is an important player in vote-rich Quebec’s economy and, should the case go to court and it be found guilty, SNC would be banned from participating in national and international tenders. The fact that the Quebec Government investment fund owns around 20 percent of the shares means that any loss of business would affect that government’s coffers.

There are two complicating factors here: one is the importance of Quebec voters in national elections, the other is the traditional perception in certain separatist circles in Quebec that the federal government does not always act in the best interests of Quebecers. The fallout of feeding such a perception in an election year could have political consequences for the Trudeau government.

Indeed, this issue seems to be dividing Canadians, with many Quebec politicians defending a decision not to prosecute but, rather, save thousands of jobs in that province, while others in the rest of Canada appear to support the former minister in her decision to withstand reported pressure from the Prime Minister’s Office to take the more politically expedient decision.

Throughout this development, Trudeau has appeared out of touch with his own cabinet and has badly misjudged the public mood. He has claimed that no demands were made of her in this regard, and has painted himself as a victim of the former minister since he claims to have been blindsided by her abrupt departure.

Quebec votes are essential to all political parties, and Canada’s political class appears more interested in pursuing electoral politics rather than doing the right thing.

While both options are legal, the main question is: do they both pass the smell test, and has Trudeau’s handling of this crisis been well executed?

I will leave the first questions to the lawyers.

With respect to the second, Trudeau has mishandled the situation from a communications point of view. Not only has he mishandled it, he is still creating a problem where none should really exist.

The Liberal Parliamentary majority’s decision to narrow the focus of any parliamentary enquiry smacks of cover up. And Trudeau’s decision not to forgo attorney-client privilege at this time precludes the former minister from giving her side of the story, and adds to perceptions that there is something to hide here.

Not particularly encouraging in a government that has promised to govern with full transparency after campaigning against its predecessor for its penchant for secrecy.

Leadership is being in control, and appearing to be in control.

There is also the “rule of holes” at play, which says that if you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you do is stop digging. One recalls that in the Watergate scandal of the early seventies, it wasn’t the actual break-in that shattered Richard Nixon’s presidency but, rather, the attempted cover-up.

By mismanaging this crisis, Trudeau is magnifying the issue and digging himself deeper into a political hole from which he may not be able to climb out.

He appears to have no strategy for dealing with this challenge, and his current difficulties lead me to question both his political acumen and that of his senior advisors.
The development has already cost Trudeau one of his best friends, confidants, and Principal Secretary, his job.
On February 18, 2019, Gerald Butts resigned, saying that "Canadians are rightly proud of their public institutions. They should be, because they work. But the fact is that this accusation exists. It cannot and should not take one moment away from the vital work the prime minister and his office is doing for all Canadians. My reputation is my responsibility and that is for me to defend. It is in the best interests of the office and its important work for me to step away”.
The situation now threatens to seep into the electoral campaign period later in the year, and could lead to a defeat at the polls for the Trudeau government at the hands of a populist Conservative party.
A defeat for Trudeau at that time would put the future of liberal democracy around the world in some doubt.

In Germany and France, respective leaders have been accused of not listening to their electorates on key issues. They have been accused of leading from an elitist position – acting as if they know better than voters. And they are paying the price – leaving the world bereft of the kind of liberal democratic leadership it so desperately needs.

In Trudeau’s case, he is demonstrating an inability to manage this crisis effectively. He is making himself look guilty and he is showing an inability to be transparent, take difficult decisions and strong stands where and when they are most needed.

While this may well be a Canadian problem, it becomes a global one when considering the precarious state of liberal democracies around the world, and the ability of populist autocrats to sway voters towards their messages and policies.

Canadians have much to be concerned about as their election looms.

But so does the global community.

[b][email protected][/b]