Defeating Populists

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Afp
La Jornada Maya

Martes 29 de mayo, 2018

Why is it so difficult to mount an effective campaign against the emerging cadre of populist leaders in Western nations?

One reason may be that the opposition is not united behind a common message or does not develop a simple but effective series of messages that connects with voters. To fight effectively, the opposition cannot allow itself to appear to react to everything that the populist says and does. Instead, it should focus on proposing new ways of doing things while consciously staging events, making announcements, and implementing initiatives to prevent the populist from being the center of attention.

I always advise my students to focus on developing two or three key messages, repeat them as often as possible, aim to connect with their audience, and drive the conversation.

I also recommend this approach to democratically inclined political leaders seeking to defeat populist candidates.

The populist often sets the tone for an election by consistently making outlandish or controversial statements or remarks to stimulate media coverage and hijack the discussion in the hope that the opposition will waste valuable time reacting and responding rather than driving its own agenda and providing the populist with valuable and free media coverage. But the repetition of positive, well-crafted messages can get through to the public and win against the politics of fear, as French President Emmanuel Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte demonstrated in recent elections.

The populist is very effective at playing on people’s fears, and at identifying “others” on whom to place blame for all of the problems voters face.

The obvious example of this is in the United States election, under Donald Trump.

During the primaries, he campaigned against a field of sixteen Republican aspirants. By using the frustration of many voters with the perceived inability of traditional political leaders to represent them effectively, Trump portrayed himself as the only outsider capable of addressing their concerns.

He used inflammatory comments and made exaggerated, unsubstantiated promises to exploit and magnify these frustrations and to appeal to the worst prejudices many carry within to basically tell them what they wanted to hear whether true or not.

In the end, he legitimized their biases and prejudices and made them feel good about themselves and their views.

How can a politician like President Trump be defeated?

At this point in time, with great difficulty.

The Democratic Party is divided between right and left wings. Yet, it is already 2018, and midterm election are coming up in November.

Yet who is their national leader? There is none.

What is their proactive political platform? Impeach and/or defeat Trump.

That seems to be the only message, if any, that the voting public is hearing.

What are their two or three key messages around which all Democrats are rallying?

I can’t name them.

A second example of how populists win, govern, and consolidate their power is Venezuela.

Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999 with a simple message.

[b]Change for the poor[/b]

His communications and divisive political strategies destroyed once powerful political parties and divided an opposition that continues to lack a simple coherent message on the one hand, and a committed and united leadership on the other. This was further supported by the coincidental $100 price per barrel of oil which allowed for the financing of his post electoral agenda that enabled him to effectively bribe voters towards constitutional change and the effective end to democratic rule in the country.

His successor, Nicolás Maduro, enjoys the support of the armed forces (who basically run what’s left of the economy) and of previously marginalized classes who have benefitted most from the current government’s largesse.

While his popularity stands at some 20 percent, he has managed to further pervert democratic institutions and the free media to a degree that they no longer matter. His control over the Cubanrun security forces is complete, as is his control over the judiciary and the bureaucracy.

And despite his lack of popularity and the serious economic and social problems plaguing the country, he remains in control.

The opposition in both countries seems to focus 24/7 on attacking the powers that be, rather than disrupting them with an alternative vision and hammering it home. They spend their time attacking leaders who have a solid, albeit minority, base rather than coalesce the majority of opposition voters behind a common vision and sole candidate.

Populists achieve power democratically by dividing and conquering. With strong, simple messages, they galvanize an electorate frustrated with the perceived inability of traditional leaders and parties to provide the policies and programs that address their needs. They create a perceived enemy that fits their narrative and creates a movement to fight it. In Trump’s case, it is Mexicans and Muslims. In the case of the Venezuelan government under Chavez and Maduro, it continues to be the “rancidoligarchy” and democratic states and organizations such as the Organization of American States who object to the course Venezuela is taking.

And they maintain power partly through their control of communications (attacking main-stream media and shutting down or marginalizing them), control over the message – that they are the only ones who can manage things and, finally, seducing the electorate by putting money into their supporters’ pockets via either through elaborate social spending or tax cuts regardless of the cost.

The opposition, in most cases, behave like deer in headlights – trapped in the populist ?s ability to drive and focus the agenda to his or her benefit.

[b]So, what works?[/b]

A strong campaign with one theme and two or three simple and focused messages that reflect fundamental values and address the key concerns of the electorate. One theme such as “hope” along with two or three strong messages that shed a light on the way forward. Messages that identify the candidate fully and simply and that are repeated continually until voters can recite them by heart. Two or three key messages that connect.

This requires a strong commitment to unity by the political opposition and to carefully selecting the right leader with the right characteristics for the task at hand.

This necessitates the emergence of a strong and equally charismatic leader at the center of the political spectrum who can connect with the majority of voters. It calls for the development of key messages and policies capable of connecting with the needs of the electorate. And it needs a leader capable of pivoting media obsession away from the populist and towards an alternative, new, aspirational and unifying vision for the country.

Without a capable, engaging alternate candidate with the right personality and communication skills to connect with voters and get their “love”, winning against the populist will be very difficult indeed.

This is critical. Selecting a technocrat or old school politician is a mistake many democratic movements make when faced with a populist. Such a candidate will not likely galvanize the public and counter effectively the charisma of the populist.

Finally, success requires a leader capable of understanding that his or her mission is not to erode the populist’s hardcore support but, rather, to galvanize and unite the anti-populist vote and reach out to the undecided voters who need to be convinced that they can make a difference by actually coming out to vote rather than staying home in protest or in disgust. Abstaining from voting is to hand victory to the populist. Voting for the opposition speaks loudly and has toppled authoritarian leaders in the past.

It requires an ability to set the agenda, and not waste time reacting to every controversial thing that the populist says or does, thus giving him or her greater notoriety and media exposure.

It requires shifting the media’s attention from the populist’s messages to those of the democratic leader who must campaign proactively while always making his/her alternative vision the story. The media will follow the stories; the responsibility to gather media and public attention is that of the candidates.

Today, democracies everywhere face the danger of populist leaders whose nature is to weaken and eliminate the democratic institutions that protect us.

It is up to all who oppose them to unite and take responsibility for their role in the process, and for all of us to ensure that we do not hand them our freedom on the silver platter of apathy.

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