Of Laws and Sausages

Otto von Bismarck is often quoted as having observed that “laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made”. 

Never has this been more poignant than in the United States, where Democrat legislators are at each other’s throats over President Biden’s massive legislative proposals. This not only affected the recent gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, but also threatens Democrat chances of retaining their majority in both Houses of Congress in 2022 as well as the White House in 2024.

Congress finally passed the infrastructure bill on Sunday, but it has not yet passed the $1.7 trillion “Build Back Better” bill – leaving the Biden administration with only a partial victory well after the gubernatorial elections.

With control over the White House and Congress, the administration so far has proven incapable of passing what Biden sees as the signature achievement of his presidency.

A Democrat legislator recently observed that Americans did not vote for Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal in 2020. Rather, they voted to end the chaos of the Trump years and for a leader who could lead the United States on a saner course.

Since the 2020 elections many were asking how Republicans would deal with the continuing massive influence of former President Trump over their party. Indeed, a significant majority of Republicans support Trump and this has been seen by some Republicans as a challenge for the party, especially if he decides to run once again in 2024.

However, the successful Republican campaign in Democrat Virginia and their near victory in New Jersey brings to the fore a new reality – that Republicans can win in 2024 if Democrats continue along their current divided path.

In Virginia, the Republican governor elect Glenn Youngkin won the primary with no political baggage. An independent Republican, he distanced himself from Trump while not alienating the former President. He did not allow Trump to campaign for him or hold rallies in Virginia during the campaign. While he did mention such dog-whistles as critical race theory, he did so in the context of local politics. His point that parents should have a strong say in their children’s education, was ridiculed by his Democrat opponent during their debate. 

His Democrat opponent, incumbent Governor Terry McAuliffe, appeared to follow a “national” campaign, trying to link Youngkin to Trump as his overall strategy and bringing in the president, the vice president, and other national personalities to campaign for him. Former Democrat Speaker Tip O’Neill often said that “all politics is local”. McAuliffe seems to have ignored this political axiom throughout his campaign.

Since Biden decided to go for an all-or-nothing $3.7 trillion spending bill that had not been passed due to resistance within his own party before these two elections, Democrats had no success to claim in time to make a difference.

Instead, by trying to force through a massive legislative package all at once rather than piece by piece, they almost guaranteed its failure. There is an old saying: “how do you eat an elephant? … One bite at a time.” Biden wanted to eat the whole beast in one swallow, but moderates within his own party balked. They won the day, leaving the President with only a partial victory.

Additionally, by centering their campaigns on Donald Trump rather than on local issues, Democrats failed to focus on connecting with the average voter who is concerned with inflation, jobs, and housing. 

While McAuliffe injected Trump into the Virginia campaign at every turn, Youngkin showed moderate Republicans how to manage the Trump phenomenon in their upcoming 2022 and 2024 campaigns.

From where I sit, it looks likely that Trump will run in 2024. He is just too strong a presence in the Republican Party to provide any other candidate with political oxygen.

The Trump Republican base is strong and united, and Youngkin has shown how to successfully expand that base – pursue the hard right politics in the primaries but move to the center during the actual campaign. 

By separating Trump the man from Trumpian policies, Youngkin managed to reach out to independents and conservative democrats who are turned off by Trump’s personality but who subscribe to many of his policy positions. This will be the challenge facing Republican candidates across the nation in 2022 and 2024.

Where is the Democrat base? Deeply divided between the extreme left and the center, with no sign of coming together any time soon. Continuously airing their dirty laundry in public, they have underscored the ugliness of law making.

While Biden ran on a platform of bringing people together, he has failed to unite his party and bring his constituents together. 

Can he hope to run successfully in 2024 when he will be 82 years old? If not, is there any Democrat who can unite the party under a policy platform that appeals to both the center and the left?

These are the sausage we are watching being made and, to date, the mix is unappealing.

Edición: Laura Espejo