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Back to the Future

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Twenty years ago, the global community was awash with hope for a new international order – one in which liberal democracy replaced the various “isms” of the twentieth century and liberal democracy became the template for global governance.

Alas, with the coming to power of Vladimir Putin in Russia and, later, Xi Jinping in China, this dream appears dead in the water, and we appear to be going back to the future.

Both Presidents (along with other authoritarian leaders) have revived extreme nationalism as the centerpiece of their foreign policy and authoritarianism as their domestic political mantras.

Russia has illegally annexed Crimea and is threatening Ukraine with invasion. It has Ukraine surrounded on three sides with over 120,000 troops. To date, President Biden, Canada, and the EU have stood firm against Russia, rebuffing Putin’s demands, yet not committing to a military response in case of a Russian invasion, preferring to promise strong and comprehensive sanctions.

Any direct military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia brings with it the danger of possible nuclear war.

As well, Russia is exercising its abilities to engage in cyber terrorism to destabilize the electoral systems of democracies everywhere. Putin is in absolute control of Russia and its financial and security institutions. He is also rumored to be the world’s richest person, So, his limitless resources and lack of accountability to anyone make him a dangerous threat.

China also held out hope that a transition towards a market economy would be complemented by political changes to bring a greater liberalization of society.

Instead, Xi Jinping has established expansionist nationalism abroad and greater authoritarianism at home as the bases of Xi thought, his philosophy glorifying his cult of personality. 

His constant attacks on Hong Kong’s democracy movement (in violation of the agreement that his predecessors struck with the United Kingdom in 1997) has ended Hong Kong’s central position in the global financial economy and is creating a new Diaspora.

Taiwan is increasingly being targeted militarily by Chinese forces who aim to bully the country into a forced reunification with the mainland. Although a vibrant and successful democracy and market economy, it doesn’t have the military strength to fight off a frontal Chinese attack or invasion.

Both Russia and China are magnets for authoritarian leaders in other parts of the world.

Hungary and Poland, two countries that shook off the Soviet yoke twenty years ago, now appear willing to destroy the democratic institutions of the European Union and follow the Russian lead.

Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba emulate the authoritarianism of their Russian ally. 

Turkey is dividing NATO with its decision to purchase a Russian missile system, thus giving the Russian arms industry (and, by extension, the Russian government) a glorious entrée into the heart of the alliance.

China is enticing EU members to become part of its Belt and Road network, with all that this implies for the ability of the EU to manage its members and maintain economic and infrastructural integrity. 

Russia and China have infiltrated on-line U.S. and other western electoral and financial systems in their hope that current deep divisions in the United States will continue and prevent a coming together of Republicans and Democrats in a unified domestic and foreign policy capable of containing this dual onslaught. 

In addition, the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) alliance against China may have alienated France and some other NATO members and left the Alliance divided to a certain extent.

This does not bode well for Western strategic interests.

Additionally, Russian and Chinese penetration of Africa is leaving the West behind, and recent decisions by several Latin American countries – Argentina the latest to the tune of $23 billion in investments and financing -- to engage in the Chinese Belt and Road initiative or follow the Russian autocratic model is disconcerting to say the least. 

Indeed, the penetration of several African armed forces by Russia’s private paramilitary Wagner Group has Western governments very concerned given this group’s disdain for basic human rights and freedoms. The result is growing social instability in states where the Wagner Group is active on behalf of Russian interests.

Recent attempts to collapse the Organization of American States is an indication of the objectives of dictatorial regimes in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua and some other governments in the region to weaken or eliminate all together the oversight essential to maintain the region’s human rights and democratic governance institutions.

Is there any light at the end of the tunnel?

Not unless NATO remains united and resolute to face the threat of authoritarianism and expansionist nationalisms diplomatically or, if necessary, militarily and economically.

President Biden attempted to do this with his Summit in December of last year. The jury is out as to whether this meeting has had or will have any impact whatsoever.

In the meanwhile, if voters in all these countries ignore the threats posed by the subliminal siren call of their own domestic authoritarian populist politicians and avoid demanding that their leaders and institutions do better, it will have been for naught.

[email protected]

 

Keep reading: From Munich to Kyiv

 

Edición: Laura Espejo


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