Ukraine Fatigue?

Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that Ukraine give up territory in order to allow Russian President Putin to “save face”. Henry Kissinger, the 99-year-old former U.S. Secretary of State, recommended the same strategy that same week.

I was not surprised by the recommendations made by Macron or Kissinger.

Macron was elected as a young leader with the vision to take France to new heights using a modern approach to governance and policies that would make France competitive in the 21st century. He sees himself as the natural heir to Angela Merkel and the leader of Europe. Earlier, he was seen as the white knight of liberal democracy, and he saw himself making France a major player internationally.

Instead, he has lost a lot of his moral authority by seemingly kowtowing to Putin whilst trying to cast himself as a peacemaker. Not surprisingly, his words were unwelcome not just by Zelensky but in many quarters internationally.

Kissinger is governed by the principles of realpolitik. His stewardship of U.S. foreign policy in the seventies was an exercise in power politics. Morality had no place in his calculations, and good and evil were only words that got in the way of his objectives.

However, realpolitik is the name of the game with respect to the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the assessments by Macron and Kissinger, while tough for Ukraine, reflect this.

Indeed, both Italy and Germany have also echoed the views of Macron and Kissinger, and some are cautioning about Ukraine fatigue setting in after months of highly focused concern for the violations of human rights and international law buy Russia.

India, the world’s most populous democracy, is becoming increasingly authoritarian under Prime Minister Modi, and he has avoided taking a strong stance against Russia because India sees it as a good source of sophisticated weaponry and cheap oil.

China doesn’t want to jeopardize its access to the lucrative U.S. market by circumventing the sanctions imposed by the West. But its sympathies clearly lie with Putin’s Russia, a fellow authoritarian state. It also has territorial pretentions with respect to Taiwan and has historically invaded neighbors such as when it brutally annexed Tibet in 1949 and has since repressed its language and culture. Its oppression of its Muslim Uyghur minority today underscores its lack of concerns for such niceties as human rights – in keeping with Putin’s vision of governance. 

Last month, an African Union delegation led by Senegal’s President Macky Sall visited Moscow to discuss the impact that the lack of wheat, fertilizer, and oil exports to Africa from Russia and Ukraine is having on that continent, and the probability that it will result in widespread famine and many deaths.

Tellingly, the delegation did not visit Kiev – underscoring Africa’s recognition of Putin as the key decision maker in this conflict.

The United States and its allies will make every effort to not intervene militarily in order to avoid a potential nuclear war. Europe, Canada, and the U.S. will continue to provide Ukraine with increasingly more sophisticated weaponry and continue to impose strong sanctions on Russia. As things stand now, however, it will be up to the Ukrainians themselves to defeat the aggressor and regain full control of their country. 

But at this stage, a complete military victory of Ukraine over Russia is not a realistic expectation. This limits the extent to which the conflict can be resolved with minimum loss of face on both sides.

As well, given Putin’s recent statements that he seeks to resurrect the Russian Empire of Peter the Great by force, if necessary, against the sovereignty of several European states, one must conclude that negotiating a balanced and fair peace with him is not possible.

Hence my question – “Ukraine Fatigue?”.

How long will Zelensky be able to provide a viable government in a country whose infrastructure is slowly being destroyed by a superior power despite a courageous defense by Ukraine’s military and citizens?

Will the millions of Ukrainians who have fled the country become permanent refuges given the destruction of Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure, thus depriving the country of many of its best and brightest?

Will the international media – that has played a major role in driving world opinion through intensive 24/7 coverage – remain engaged or are they moving on to other issues as audiences become used to the war and become more concerned by the effects of the war on their pocketbooks?

Will citizens around the world – faced with a significant rise in their cost of living due to shortages of oil and gas as well as wheat and its impact on world food production -- soon demand a solution that focuses on realpolitik rather than morality and ethical behavior? 

Finally, by allowing Putin to win concessions from Ukraine, will we be opening the door to further Russian expansionism? He has already proven that any agreement that he signs is basically worthless. 

Bottom line, is there any solution today that satisfies all parties, and avoids an eventual confrontation between Russia and the United States that could lead to nuclear war?

These are questions that will have to be addressed as Russia and Ukraine settle in for what appears to be a protracted war.

The eventual responses will have an impact not only on the fate of a free and democratic Ukraine, but also, perhaps, on global peace and stability.

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Sigue leyendo: The Decline of the United Nations

Edición: Laura Espejo