Playing the Long Game

Over the past fifty years, the United States has been governed alternatively by Republican presidents and congressional majorities and Democrat ones.

Recent events have demonstrated that, while Democrats appear to focus almost exclusively on winning the Presidency and the Congress, Republicans not only seek to win at this level, but also at the state level, knowing full well that state legislatures determine federal Congressional districts in each state.

Indeed, state legislatures are responsible for managing federal elections. In many Republican run states, they pass electoral regulations and laws that can make it difficult for minorities to vote. These minorities usually vote Democrat, and regulations that make photo identity cards a requirement (many poor people can´t get drivers licenses), make polling stations difficult to reach, and reduce or eliminate early voting or voting by mail can make a difference in a congressional election. 

Consequently, Republicans win House of Representative seats in far greater numbers than their aggregate vote would dictate. This in turn allows a minority of voters to become the majority in the House, as is expected this coming November.

The individual states also play an important role in determining election management at the federal level as we saw in 2020, when the losing Republican candidate tried to get state secretaries of state and governors to reverse the result in his favor. While he was unsuccessful, it underscored the risk inherent to ignoring this potential for corruption of the system by federal level Republicans who in this case showed their disregard for the law. 

The fact that a majority of Republicans continue to posit that the election was stolen indicates that the party is fully committed to promoting lies in order to gain power

So how did we get to this point?

In the 1970’s, conservatives created a national network of AM radio stations through which they pumped their messages twenty-four hours per day.

They focused on two easy to understand topics – reverse Roe vs. Wade and reject any form of gun control.

They were successful in turning key Republican figures, including Ronald Reagan. As governor of California in the sixties, he signed the most liberal pro-abortion bills. He also questioned why people needed AK-47’s to go shopping.

The advent of AM talk radio underscored popular support on the right for their two messages, and Reagan reversed his stances prior to winning the presidency in 1980. 

When Rupert Murdoch set up FOX News in 2001, he hired Republican strategist Richard Ailes to run it. With Murdoch’s strong support, Ailes created an effective propaganda machine for right-wing conservatives. It took no time for this Republican machine to create its own narrative of falsehoods that evolved to the point where today they draw the largest audience on cable television news and are considered gospel truth by their regular viewers.

Rarely does FOX News invite personalities with a point of view that argues against the Republican narrative. When it does, they are usually alone surrounded by Republican sycophants. In this way, FOX News filters the information and views that reach its viewership, and alternative facts are the result. 

All in Republican control. 

Finally, the Republicans began working fifty years ago to change the balance on the Supreme Court in their favor. They were finally successful under Trump, who appointed three conservative justices. The result was the reversal of Roe vs Wade, and others are expected soon.

Under the Tea Party Republicans in 2010 and, later, under Trump, right-wing extremists have taken over the party, leaving moderate Republicans marginalized.

The Democrats have not been so successful.

They only hold 22 governorships out of fifty and control only 50% of offices of state Secretaries of State who serve as their chief elections officer. Today, they only control 44% of state legislatures --   the bodies that design congressional districts and ensure that minority voters who usually vote Democrat are in the minority.

Democratic strategists focus more on national offices, and they consequently pay the price when they cannot win a majority in federal elections.

Democrats also lack a central message that resonates with centrist and left-wing voters, and they also lack passionate supporters at the center. Rather than vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016, many stayed at home to protest to express their displeasure at her candidacy over that of Bernie Sanders.

Trump won.

Democrats also fight among themselves and often present contradictory messages to voters who seek a middle of the road approach by a candidate who wants to accomplish results for voters. The current struggle between left-wing and centrist Democrats has made President Joe Biden appear hapless and unable to control his party and unite the country.

To win, Democrats must find ways to emulate the Republican long-game.

This requires them re-affirming the core values they stand for and developing key policy themes that can be united in supporting and that motivate the widest core of Democrat supporters, especially those less engaged, to get out and vote.

They would also be wise to seek a younger cadre of leaders to espouse these messages. Their current leadership in the House and Senate is octogenarian, as is the President. This doesn’t resonate well with younger voters who demand action rather than reflection and who seem to want leaders who go for the jugular.

Given current reality, while the US will likely remain divided, if the Democrats do not adjust their approach, we can expect that the right will continue to dominate, perhaps at the cost of US democracy.

Keep reading: The Last Summit of the Americas?

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Edición: Laura Espejo