Farewell, Mr. Trudeau?

This year, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau celebrates seven years in office.

His first mandate was as head of a majority government, his second and third as head of minority governments.

Today, he has lost much of his popularity and credibility among a large swathe of the Canadian electorate.

A poll taken on July 30th indicates that if an election were to be held today, the currently leaderless Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) would win 35% of the vote, while the Trudeau Liberals would only win some 30%. 

Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s top pollsters, reflects that these numbers are a clear signal to the Liberals that many voters, including large numbers of people on the centre of the spectrum, are restless and not very many people feel good about the current direction of the country. 

Indeed, only 33% of Canadians believe that Canada is headed in the right direction. Fifty percent of voters disapprove of the government’s job performance – hence the currently leaderless CPC’s wide lead in the polls.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are highly competitive and many of the views of aspiring CPC leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre may be more acceptable to many voters than are the policies of the Trudeau government.

To date, many have believed that Mr. Trudeau’s saving grace is that he is not Mr. Poilievre who is often cast as Trump wannabe whose conservative and controversial proposals seem to go against the grain of many Canadians. Yet, as recent polling indicates, as dissatisfaction with Mr. Trudeau grows, Mr. Poilievre’s shortcomings may matter less to voters than Mr. Trudeau’s performance.

Mr. Trudeau has proven to be a very able retail politician. He is always the subject of myriad selfies with people across Canada and behaves more like a celebrity than as a sober political leader. Indeed, he has always projected an image of youthful exuberance rather than political gravitas.

Herein lies his problem.

Many of his campaign promises have been sacrificed on the altar of expediency or political advantage. His handling of major crisis like the mass demonstrations across by anti-Covid lockdown protesters and their supporters across Canada, his seemingly constant responses to crises (throw money at them and hope that they will go away), and his lack of an articulated vision for where he wants Canada to go all work against him now that the initial impact of youthful energy has been replaced by a superficial governing style and high-spending policies.

Does Mr. Trudeau see the writing on the wall – that the Liberals stand a good chance of losing the next election absent a change of leaders to someone not tarried by the Trudeau brush?

Are his advisers and, more importantly, Liberal Party executives evaluating the political costs of keeping Mr. Trudeau as leader into the next election? 

Will Mr. Trudeau conclude that he must leave on his own, or will he have to be pushed out?

I believe that Mr. Trudeau is convinced that he can beat Mr. Poilievre in an election. Yet, the latest polls would question the validity of this assumption.

So, that leaves us with the fundamental question as to why Mr. Trudeau will decide to stay and run for a fourth mandate.

One reason may well be ego – he still thinks that he can win and enjoys his position.

But there is another factor that may be weighing heavily on his mind.

Unlike most of his predecessors, he is not a lawyer, nor does he have a business background. So, he would likely not have the option of joining a prestigious legal firm or many corporate boards.

He lacks the international gravitas to be elected or appointed to a major multilateral post – the United Nations, the Francophonie, The Organization of American States, or any of the large U.N. specialized agencies.

So, at fifty years of age, he does not appear to have a clear-cut path towards a traditional post-prime ministerial future.

Absent any options for the future, he may well decide to roll the dice once more, to the chagrin of many Canadian Liberals who might not vote for his party should he remain as leader 

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Edición: Laura Espejo