Winners and Losers

As I write this article, it is two days after the US midterm election and the exact results are as yet unknown. Nevertheless, it is a good guess that the House will transition from Democrat leadership to Republican.

However, the great “red wave” predicted by many in the media and the Republican Party never materialized. Indeed, if the Republicans take over the Senate it will be by one seat and if they also take the House of Representatives, it will be with a handful of seats.

So, the question is: who won and who lost?

While neither President Biden nor Donald Trump were running, this election appears to have been as much about their aspirations for 2024 as it was for the Congressional candidates running this year.

Mid-term elections are usually seen as little more than a referendum on the incumbent administration. Yet, despite President Biden’s low standing in the polls and the poor economic situation in the US, the Republicans scored the least change of seats in forty years of mid- term elections. 

Why?

The short answer is Donald Trump.

While Trump still has a base in the Republican Party, many of his high-profile candidates lost this time around. It appears that many voters want to look at the future rather than litigate the 2020 presidential election, and Trump’s endless focus on his own situation and lack of concern about others may have reduced his support among moderate Republicans and independents who are the coveted “swing voters”. 

While Trump waxes eloquent that he is the only winner in the world, the Wall Street Journal, usually a strong supporter of the ex-President, published an editorial saying, "Since his unlikely victory in 2016 against the widely disliked Hillary Clinton, Mr. Trump has a perfect record of electoral defeat. The GOP was pounded in the 2018 midterms owing to his low approval rating. Mr. Trump himself lost in 2020. He then sabotaged Georgia’s 2021 runoffs by blaming party leaders for not somehow overturning his defeat."

Most newly elected Republicans never mentioned Trump in their victory speeches, aware that perhaps his luster may well be waning and that moderate voters are growing tired of the politics of confrontation and negativity. 

Up until now, there appeared to be no Republican alternative to the former president. But this campaign uncovered Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who swept Florida (a key electoral state), and spent much time campaigning for other Republican candidates across the US and thus collecting valuable iou’s. 

DeSantis is Trump without the negative personal baggage. He connects well with audiences and could well attract more moderate Republicans and independents who agree with Trumpian policies but dislike the former president’s personality traits.

While President Biden appears to have won by losing only a handful of seats despite his low popularity, I believe that the boost to his confidence will backfire on Democrats in 2024 should he decide to run again (as he has indicated) and should DeSantis win the Republican nomination. The President will be 82 in 2024 and would be 86 when the term ends in 2028.

It is time for a generational shift in US politics. DeSantis is 44 years old and will likely speak to a new generation of voter. His ability to sweep Florida will contrast with the President’s poor popularity ratings.  Democrats have a few young stars, one being Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Buttigieg is highly intelligent, articulate, and excellent public speaker, moderate in his views, and connects superbly with audiences of all kinds. He has often gone on FOX News and has always come out winning.

This is the kind of candidate that Democrats will need, especially if President Biden doesn’t do well during the next two years when Republicans in Congress will seek revenge by trying to impeach him and tie him to his son Hunter’s business dealings. 

To date, we have seen no proof of any malfeasance by the younger Biden. But a further two years of negativity will compromise the President’s ability to craft and deliver forward looking messages and policies if he is distracted from governing due to Congressional moves against him and his family.

So, who won and who lost? It depends on your perspective.

Whatever your reaction, it will be fun to watch DeSantis and Trump face off for the next two years as President Biden quipped at a recent news conference. 

But fun aside, the US continues to be the Divided States of America and that reality shows no signs of abating. 

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Edición: Laura Espejo