Politique de Grandeur?

Chinese President Xi Jinping had one overriding message for visiting President Emmanuel Macron two weeks ago: Don’t get sucked into the U.S. game of containing China. He sees Macron as a potentially excellent partner to keep China’s relationship with the European Union on the rails and by encouraging it to act independently of U.S. pressure and policy.

“I’m very glad we share many identical or similar views on Sino-French, Sino-EU, international and regional issues,” Xi told Macron over tea. Indeed, Macron believes in European strategic autonomy – a vision that fits in perfectly with China’s objective of driving a wedge between Europe and the U.S., much the same way as Russian President Putin tried but seems to have failed with his invasion of Ukraine.

President Macron told journalists that France does not pick sides and doesn’t like bloc confrontation. “The paradox would be that, overcome with panic, we believe we are just America’s followers,” Macron said in the interview. “The question Europeans need to answer … is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan”?

President Macron noted that “Europeans cannot resolve the crisis in Ukraine; how can we credibly say with respect to Taiwan, ‘watch out, if you do something wrong, we will be there’? If you really want to increase tensions that’s the way to do it”.

While many may stand aghast at Macron’s musings, is he right in assuming that Taiwan is not a war worth fighting? 

“Europe is more willing to accept a world in which China becomes a regional hegemon,” said Yanmei Xie, a geopolitics analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. “Some of its leaders even believe such a world order may be more advantageous to Europe.”

I once wrote that countries rarely act out or principle but, rather, act out of self-interest. 

One must ask if Taiwan is the place where the West wants to take a final stand and engage in hostilities with China that could well escalate globally. Last week, Warren Buffet, the world’s premier investor, told Nikkei news that he was pulling out of his company’s (Berkshire Hathaway Investments) from the chip giant TSMC. This Taiwan company produces most of the world’s sophisticated computer chips used in everything from computers to motor vehicles. He claimed that he was taking this major step in view of the geopolitical situation.

Warren Buffet is a man who knows what is going on, and not one to risk a long-term investment without good reason.

According to CNN news, the company is perceived as being so valuable to the global economy, as well as to China — which claims Taiwan as its own territory — that it is sometimes even referred to as forming part of a “silicon shield” against a potential military invasion by Beijing. 

Thus far, Taiwan has benefited from the so-called “silicon shield” – the theory that the preponderance of chip manufacturing on the island would force the West to come to Taiwan’s aid in case of an invasion. But, with President Biden’s massive investment plans in chip manufacturing facilities in the U.S., this shield may be rapidly eroding. 

Writing in Parameters (a U.S. War College publication), Jared McKinney and Peter Harris suggest that instead of defending the chip plants on the island, the U.S. might simply destroy them in calculated missile attacks and invite the scientists to migrate to the U.S. and other Western countries with their expertise and technology to preclude China’s taking over these strategic facilities should it invade the island. 

“[China] must absolutely believe Taiwan’s semiconductor industry would be destroyed in the event of an invasion,” they wrote.

“An automatic mechanism might be designed, which would be triggered once an invasion was confirmed. In addition, Taiwan’s leaders could make it known now they will not allow these industries to fall into the hands of an adversary.”

So, is France pursuing a “politique de grandeur” and appeasement as many people think or is Macron preparing the world for a time when the West might not think it is in its interests to launch World War III for the sake of a tiny island – especially if its single strategic product is safely being produced en masse elsewhere. Indeed, it comes down to chip technology, not democracy.

That is a question many Taiwanese must be asking themselves these days. 

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Keep reading: Pragmatism vs. Principle

Edition: Estefanía Cadreña