And Putin?

Since he came to power 23 years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin has built a dictatorship by playing factions in the military, the security services, and the oligarchs against each other. 

He is so suspicious and paranoid that he created a private army known as the Wagner group in 2014, under the command of his old friend Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led an estimated force of some 50,000 well trained and experienced fighters. 

Wagner operates in roughly 30 countries, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and it is accused of numerous human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings. Its fighters are most influential in African countries such as Libya, Mali, Central African Republic, and Sudan where armed conflicts have forced leaders to turn to Moscow for help.

With respect to Ukraine, Prigozhin has been blaming regular Russian army generals for Russia’s disastrous showing. He has claimed that the armed forces have refused to pay his men as well as provide weapons and ammunition.

According to the BBC, Prigozhin has repeatedly accused defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of armed forces in Ukraine, Valery Gerasimov, of incompetence. Interestingly, however, he has never criticized Putin for either invading Ukraine or mismanaging the war, allowing the Russian dictator the privilege of distancing himself from the failure of his troops to defeat Ukraine.

On 23 June, Prigozhin said top Russian defense officials had bombed Wagner troops in Ukraine.

A day later, his troops seized control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and began their march to Moscow, with the stated aim of removing the military leadership. Some observers saw parallels with the Russian army’s revolt against Tsar Nicolas II in 1917 in protest against the mismanagement by the regime of that war. 

As the war in Ukraine and the repression of those who stand against the war has become increasingly unpopular many look for an end to the death and destruction and blame Putin for putting the country in this predicament. 

However, Prigozhin stopped short of marching on Moscow, preferring to negotiate with the Kremlin through the good offices of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.

He is now in exile in Belarus. Many of his troops have returned to Ukraine and criminal charges against all of them have been dropped. Putin has made their integration into the Russian army a condition for their amnesty.

And Putin?

When the Wagner Group began to move into Russia, Putin denounced them as traitors who would pay dearly for their actions. Suddenly, a few hours later, the deal was struck that sent Prigozhin into exile, and Putin forgave the Group all of its sins.

A few days later, Putin took to the streets to show the world that Russians were united behind his leadership, and that this episode was only a small distraction.

Putin has been weakened. 

The fact that Russian soldiers aided the Wagner Group to invade Russia unimpeded indicates that the Russian military and intelligence forces were not on the ball and, in some cases, were disloyal to the Putin regime.

As well, the need to put the ultimate negotiation in the hands of Lukashenko rather than deal directly with Prigozhin or defeat him in the field calls into question Putin’s ultimate aim.

Did he want to find an excuse to fire his defense minister and senior generals without getting his hands dirty? Did he want to test his generals’ loyalty and the extent to which the elites that he has empowered support him?

Whatever the truth is, Putin’s hold on power may well be compromised. 

But a weakened Putin could be more dangerous should he feel the need to exert his strength against his neighbors or his own people to consolidate his position..

In the meantime, as a paranoid leader with real enemies, he must now cope with a military that may or may not be loyal, and group of armed and battle-hardened thugs who may or may not meld well with the military structure, and an elite that may be skittish about placing its faith in a diminished leader.

So, the question remains.

And Putin?

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Edition: Estefanía Cardeña