Niger

On 26 July 2023, the Presidential Guard commander General Abdourahamane Tchiani mounted a coup against the democratically elected president of Niger Mohamed Bazoum. General Tchaini declared himself president, and the Guard closed Niger’s borders and declared a curfew.

Readers may wonder why a coup in a small, impoverished central African state should merit global attention. 

Niger is a member of ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), which has already suspended Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso from membership due to coups in recent years. Bola Tinubu, President of Nigeria, was appointed Chairman of ECOWAS on July 9th and already warned in statements that same day that "We will not allow coup after coup in the West African sub-region. We will take this up seriously with the African Union, Europe, America and Britain.”

ECOWAS also announced "immediate sanctions" on Niger, including the closure of land and air borders, imposition of a no-fly zone on all commercial flights to and from Niger and the suspension of all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS and Niger. The assets of Niger state enterprises were frozen by the ECOWAS Central Bank, leading to the cancellation of a 30 billion CFA francs ($51 million) bond issuance.

In addition to these four countries, Sudan and Chad are military dictatorships as well, leaving the region known as the Sahel as a cordon of autocracy across the breadth of Africa. 

This is of concern for a number of reasons.

The region is the major playground for ISIS as the terrorist group continues in its campaign to eliminate foreign influences and establish fundamentalist Islamic control there. Niger has received large scale military and financial backing from the West, especially from the United States and France to counter this threat. 

However, along with anti-French sentiment in the region given its colonial past and continued influence, pro-Russian and pro-Wagner Group feelings have grown in recent years. Russia, through Wagner, has been gaining ground at the expense of the French in the region, following the latest coups in Mali and Burkina Faso. 

The United States referred to the situation as "an effort to seize power by force and to disrupt the constitution," stopping short of describing it as a coup. That would require a withdrawal of economic aid and military assistance, including existing drone and military bases, to the nation. 

The EU and France are withholding financial and development aid to Niger and suspending all security cooperation agreements with the country. France has stated that it continues to recognize Mr. Bazoum as the "sole president" of Niger, with ECOWAS also stating that it recognized Mr. Bazoum as the "legitimate and legal President of Niger.”

Western governments began the evacuation of their nationals, while Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin offered his assistance to coup leaders. 

The Wagner Group is heavily involved in other military dictatorships in the region. Despite Mr. Prigozhin’s attempted attack on Russia a few weeks ago, he remains free and seemingly in charge of the mercenary group. 

This leads me to think that Russian President Putin retains Mr. Prigozhin’s support and is using the group to enhance Russia’s foreign policy objectives while retaining an aura of plausible deniability. Indeed, the Kremlin criticized the coup in public while ignoring the Wagner Group’s support for coup leaders.

The arc of dictatorships is worrying in a region that bisects the African continent and controls vast amounts of strategic materials (uranium and lithium, among others) of interest to both Russia and China. 

Neither Russia nor China demands respect for human rights or democratic freedoms in exchange for their investments and support. The Wagner Group doesn’t charge cash for its services. Rather, it provides them in exchange for mining and natural resource extraction concessions. 

The Chinese pursue their Belt and Road initiatives for their own economic and political purposes, again exchanging investments for control over infrastructure or lucrative concessions.

The coup in Niger underscores the challenges facing the West in a large chunk of Africa replete with strategic resources and well placed to cut the continent in two. 

What are the options?

An invasion by ECOWAS members would lead to a war with the dictatorships that would only result in needless violence and countless deaths, especially with Wagner Group and ISIS involvement.

An intervention by France or, worse, the US would exacerbate feelings in Africa as a colonialist venture – especially given the anti-French and anti-US sentiments in the region, and the belief by many there that Russia is on their side against the former colonial power.

So, the options for a peaceful resolution, other than a maintaining of the status quo, remain slight unless the players want to open a Pandora’s box that no one can control.

A dangerous scenario that could explode into violence unless cooler heads prevail.

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Edición: Ana Ordaz