2024 Part II

A few people have commented that my recent articles on 2023 and 2024 were extremely negative and offered little hope.

I agree. 

The articles were an analysis of where we are going geopolitically, and geopolitics depend on the quality of political leadership. 

And it is sorely lacking.

As we have seen, COP 28, the climate change summit held recently in Dubai was a disappointment. In my view, political  leaders are still unable to adequately address the existential threat of climate change. They would rather look down the road to the next election rather than to the next thirty or forty years, when global warming will affect life on earth as we know it.

Thankfully, the political class can bicker all it wants.

My brother Philip always opines that investment goes where the opportunities lie.

The opportunities are there, and money is flowing.

During the past decade we have seen the exponential growth in electric vehicles, spurred on by Tesla – the world’s most valuable automobile company and one of the most valuable companies in any sector.

When motor cars were first produced, many argued that they wouldn't last because of the major infrastructural requirements for their operation. Roads would have to be built, refueling stations created en masse, and the gasoline industry developed to an extent never before imagined.

These changes took place and, within a few years, horses and buggies were gone and the car became a commodity rather than a luxury.

While governments dither, innovation moves on.

Tesla is set to not only remain a major automobile manufacturer, but also an important player in world energy markets.

It is investing heavily in the charging stations globally to meet the demand for charging electric vehicles. It has negotiated with other manufacturers to use Tesla charging technology and thus make Tesla’s charging system the universal model for all electric vehicles to use Tesla charging stations in many markets.

Some ask how this new demand for electrical power will be met.

There are already proposals to revitalize nuclear energy production to meet demand. Nuclear energy can be harnessed safely with today’s technology and this, together with wind, wave, solar, and hydro generation, can increase supply exponentially.

The results will be a tectonic shift in the transportation industry, from production to sales, servicing and distribution, costing jobs in some sectors but creating many more in the new transportation sector and in the high-tech sector in general.

Another tremendous change is already underway in the health sector with the melding of artificial intelligence with communications technology.

Most countries suffer from a lack of medical facilities capable of meeting demand. 

Tele-health services offer an ability for patients who have minor ailments to consult with doctors on-line to get the advice that they need in a most cost and time effective manner for employees, employers and medical professionals. The travel time saved means less carbon footprint from such visits and a benefit to patients and medical staff.

I see how telemedicine works in the public health system in Spain, where doctors prescribe medication and instructions onto the patient’s digital file and pharmacists can replenish prescriptions without the need for wasteful repeat visits.

On another front, the ongoing COVID pandemic has brought what many people consider to be a radical shift in how we work. Even though the dangers from COVID have subsided due to mass vaccinations and changes to personal hygiene habits, many people still prefer to work from home.

This is creating significant changes in transportation with potential long term favorable impacts on the environment.

New housing will have to consider the home working environment in the design of homes and apartments and demand for household energy supplies will grow accordingly. Businesses that cater to office workers in downtown areas will have to adapt or move to suburban centers where home office workers will live. 

Of course, existing office space can be reconditioned into apartments to provide much needed housing and as well sustain the small businesses that have hitherto catered to the office crowd.

Like all massive changes, this will require a revolution of mentalities. 

Governments will have to become far more visionary and change their perspective to create winning conditions that encourage industries and technology while maintaining their economies afloat as they seek to transition away from fossil fuels.

Government interference must be limited to providing the essential social, economic, and legislative infrastructure with a fulsome knowledge of how technology works and how it can effectively interact with all of us to meet the goals of sustainable economies and people’s welfare.

Working together, the public and private sectors can create an environment in which their economies, business and workers can successfully make the transition. 

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Keep reading: 2024

Edition: Estefanía Cardeña