2024

The French often say that the more things change, the more they remain the same.

Geopolitically, 2024 will likely begin as challenging as the year previous ended, if not more so.

Several issues will continue to plague us, and they may not be easy to resolve.

The issues of migration and multiculturalism will continue to create deep divisions in many societies. 

Some immigrants today bring their domestic problems and hatreds to receiving societies, preferring not to integrate fully into their new cultural surroundings. They seek to change receiving societies to resemble more the societies that they have left.

Islamic extremists from ISIS to Hamas preach the Islamification of the world – a globe under universal Sharia law and Islamic rule. They use violence and fifth columns in most countries to pursue their agenda.

Reactions in the West to the current war in the Middle East has shown Hamas supporters attacking Western institutions and ripping down national flags in favor of ISIS and Palestinian flags. Their supporters appear to be legion and convinced of the righteousness of their cause without being conscious of the consequences of their actions.

The fact that these malcontents have invaded even prestigious centers of education like Harvard, University of Pennsylvania, and MIT underscores the depth of their penetration not only among Islamic immigrants but also of Western minds who find something romantic in their global struggle.

Resentment in the West against the power of these groups could well lead to the increasing election of governments that refuse to tolerate immigration and seek to continue to pursue homogenous cultural policies.  

Voters will likely resent governments that are perceived to cater to immigrant groups for electoral reasons rather than protect national interests and cultures. Depending upon the measures taken, multiculturalism might suffer as a result, crushing the dream of many of having cultural mosaics within national states.

Another issue of consequence will be the elections scheduled for 2024.

There is little doubt that Russian President Putin will win the presidential elections in March. His control over the electoral machinery is complete, and only a fool would consider strongly challenging him. 

But the presidential election in the United States holds the possibility of engineering a tectonic shift in global politics.

At time of writing, former President Donald Trump stands an excellent chance of becoming the Republican candidate despite his many moral and ethical shortcomings and the 91 criminal and civil charges he faces. Polls indicate that he has a good chance of winning the presidential election against incumbent President Joe Biden.

A second Trump presidency would likely see the United States pulling out of NATO and withdrawing support from the European Union through his support for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and incoming Dutch Prime Minister Geert Wilders – both anti-EU extreme right-wing leaders. 

This would play into the hands of Russian President Putin whose political objective is disassembling both institutions and extending Russia’s reach into Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.

Polarization in the United States could also put the US into uncertainty in a second Trump presidency. Republican states and Democrat states are opposed to the values of the other and see any form of compromise as capitulation rather than a way to achieve a consensus and find ways forward. Mr. Trump would exacerbate this polarization even further.

The United Nations’ political bodies and specialized institutions have lost much of their credibility in view of their inability to maintain neutrality in the Hamas-Israeli conflict. This in light of the blind eye the turned to other equally significant ongoing conflicts and issues. Moreover, the UN’s support of Hamas over the years in Gaza has now been shown to be a fact – leaving many questioning if the organization is fit for purpose.

The Security Council’s impotence in dealing with such major crises as the Russian invasion of Ukraine along with the disdain caused by the election of countries run as dictatorships to senior positions on the Human Rights Council give the impression of an institution incapable of enforcing its own Charter and lacking credibility. 

Liberal democrats will continue to struggle at the polls since many voters are angry that their traditional values have been challenged by liberal policies that stand in opposition to their traditional values and beliefs. Moreover, liberal governments have demonstrated a lack of leadership, have failed in many cases to listen to the complaints of many voters, have mis-managed their economies and been unable to address their problems with effective policies.

Strong economies are measured today in macroeconomic terms.

But these terms do not address the micro economic challenges faced by many: the lack of affordable housing, health care, education; the lack of economic and personal security; the corruption that exists in many countries that appears to be beyond control; and the constant bickering between political parties instead of a consensus to achieve real solutions to real problems.

These are the geopolitical challenges that we all face in the coming year, and there appear to be few if any leaders capable of resolving them beyond issuing bland statements or talking points. Political and social polarization is such that the extremes on both side of the spectrum appear to be controlling the agendas of many governments and multilateral institutions.

This leaves the middle ground leaderless and adrift.

That, in my view, is the fundamental challenge that we all face in 2024 and beyond.

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Keep reading: 2023

Edition: Estefanía Cardeña