What if?

After months of downplaying and, at times, denying COVID19 outright, U.S. President Trump and his wife have both tested positive with the virus. 

The announcement has cast tremendous uncertainty on the presidential election race.

The fact that they have been stricken has thrust a spear into the very heart of Trump’s main campaign messages – that COVID 19 is on the way out, that the wearing of masks is to be ridiculed, that mass rallies carry no health costs for those who attend, and that he knows more than the experts.

A White House in which few if any wear masks or practices social distancing has proven dangerous for this president and members if his inner cabinet. During the next few days, we will see how many of his close aides and Republican leaders have also been infected. after sheepishly bowing to Trump’s message of denial and the accompanying mismanagement of the pandemic.

This development leads to many “what if” questions that must be answered over the course of the next few days.

The first thing that must be done is contact testing of all who came into contact with Trump and his wife recently, as well as other senior leaders who have also tested positively. 

Since the President reportedly attended two fundraisers and a major rally AFTER being diagnosed with COVID 19, what is his legal and civil liability to those whom he may have infected through his reckless behavior? 

What if Trump becomes incapacitated either temporarily or permanently before the election? In this case, the party would nominate someone to replace him. While it would seem logical for Vice Presidential candidate Mike Pence to fill the role, it is not automatic. 

Another question is what would happen to all of the early voting ballots with Trump’s name on it? Since each state manages the federal election in its own way, I have not been able to find an answer to this important question.

This diagnosis also provides him with a face-saving way out of the next two scheduled debates after his abysmal performance on September 29th.

At the same time however, Trump now has to reconcile his diagnosis with the main message of his campaign – that he has managed the pandemic brilliantly? How does he square the circle of his having the virus with his post-infection decision to attend a fund raiser in New Jersey on September 30th putting perhaps thousands of people at risk?

The media should hold Trump’s feet to the fire throughout his illness to ensure that he or his spokespersons don’t provide Trump with any opportunity to use disinformation for his political benefit. The British media held Prime Minister Boris Johnson to full account throughout his bout of coronavirus and this avoided him from reinventing facts to his political benefit.

Should he survive the virus, I do not doubt that his fundamentalist Christian supporters will claim a divine miracle and use his to underscore their deification of Trump. This will further polarize the country and insert a mystical quality into the election.

As well, should Trump survive, he might also claim that one of his recommended improvised treatments for the disease saved his life. One cannot put this past a man who has lied and manipulated public opinion since he entered public life.

On the flip side, should Trump be incapacitated, any attempt by either party to engage in political maneuverings for the rest of the campaign could likely only further divide the nation. Trump is the most divisive president in U.S. history as well as the most hated by large sectors of society. 

However we look at it, healthy or sick, the dangers for the United States from this election are real, and only becoming more alarming.

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Edición: Elsa Torres