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Eduardo del Buey
La Jornada Maya

Europe has been plunged into uncertainty. British voters have voted to leave the European Union (EU) and go it on their own. “BREXIT” has won the day, and we now face a whole new world.

Leaders from other European countries and many Brits themselves were caught off guard since the latest polls seemed to indicate a win by the “remain” side. Now leaders of nationalist movements in several EU member states – Italy and the Netherlands, for example – are calling for similar referenda to determine their status within the EU. Scots will want another referendum to separate from the United Kingdom (UK) and join the EU. Northern Ireland is in limbo, having voted strongly to remain in the EU but will now find themselves part of what many are calling “Little England”.

David Cameron has resigned as Prime Minister, and there are moves afoot within the Labour Party to dump leader Jeremy Corbyn for his lackluster campaign against Brexit.

In short, tectonic shifts that are being felt around the globe.

What does this portend for North America?

In the short term, it is likely to bolster Donald Trump at the polls, as his anti-immigrant rhetoric seems to have echoed in the United Kingdom and a number of other European Union member states whose people are concerned about the effects of massive numbers of Muslim refugees being admitted and the possible effects to their own social fabric. Trump was interviewed extensively this morning, being featured on CNN International as if he had won the referendum himself. Hillary Clinton was nowhere to be found.

Trump likely will now find reason to try to advocate destroying NAFTA as we know it, and the BREXIT argument will undoubtedly reinforce his supporters who blame the trade deal for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US rustbelt and illegal immigration as the source of many of their domestic ills.

Mexico and Canada will have to deal with a renewal of isolationism in the United States. Their economies and prosperity depend on it. BREXIT has shown that voters don´t think rationally in many cases, but with their inner emotions that are not always right. Trump appeals to these darker angels, and his performance in the aftermath of BREXIT underscores his determination to continue to underpin his campaign with anti-immigrant and anti-free-trade rhetoric.

This week’s “Three Amigos” summit in Ottawa will take place in the shadows of the Brexit and of Trump’s apparently unstoppable progress towards the November elections. The Mexican, Canadian, and US leaders will have to deal with these issues, and manage their way through the rhetoric of the anti-NAFTA pro-Trump forces in the United States.

Uncomfortable indeed.

The economic impact on the United Kingdom (a massive devaluation of the pound, the dislocation of millions of Brits currently living in a united Europe and Europeans living in the United Kingdom, all of them visa-free) will underscore the dangers of eliminating NAFTA as the basis for our trilateral relationship and jeopardizing economic growth in the name of populism. The 1930´s would rise again, with an isolationist and protectionist US going its own way, and the rest of the world having to survive somehow in its wake.

What can Mexico and Canada do?

There is little sway either country can hope to enjoy with Trump supporters, and perceptions of direct interference would only bolster their xenophobia. The Canadian and Mexican governments should consider keeping a low profile in this internal US debate. However, low profile can be managed strategically to ensure key messages get across by messengers who are not employed to any one government.

Soft power and public diplomacy can contribute to solidifying the opposition to Trump. Alliances with influential local and national private sector figures can go a long way towards making an impact. Indeed, campaigns are already underway by diplomats from both countries to underscore the importance of cross-border trade to specific regions of the United States where Canada or Mexico are the major markets for US exports and sustain millions of US jobs.

These campaigns should be expanded to include academics and artists, local and national business personalities who can speak knowledgably about the power of unity that NAFTA represents in a globalized world. They can effectively send the message that trade between the three countries – free and fair trade – is essential for the prosperity of each NAFTA member.

Competition forces out old and inefficient industries but gives birth to new ones. Leaders should find ways to convince voters that educational and training facilities will retrain them for the new economy and prepare their children to meet new challenges.

Old jobs may have disappeared, but new jobs and industries have emerged.

Mexico has become an important player in the aerospace industry and is a global automotive power. Canada remains a major producer of high tech products. Both countries are critical for the value chains across North America that bind the region´s auto industry that produces a wide variety of vehicles for the domestic and export markets. Indeed, the argument can be made that many products imported by the United States from Canada and Mexico have significant components produced in the United States, creating and sustaining jobs that would disappear were NAFTA to go under.

Cultural, business, and public diplomacy are powerful tools if used wisely. Their appeal will not likely sway many pro-Trump voters, since their demographic does not include a wide appreciation for culture or academics.

But the goal here is not to sway Trump voters to change their minds. In this post-factual world, they won´t, bolstered by the BREXIT victory that they see reflecting their own aspirations.

Rather, it is to galvanize the anti-Trump movement to vocally support the alternative, and enthusiastically come out to vote in November. The Trump juggernaut has been bolstered by the BREXIT vote.

It is now up to Trump´s opponents to learn from the British “remain” experience and not allow it to become a template for their own defeat.

In this, Mexican and Canadian public diplomacy can play an effective role.

Mérida, Yucatán
Sábado 25 de junio, 2016


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