A Tale of Two Losers?

Por: Eduardo del Buey

Last year, Tirant LoBlanch published my book Trump vs. Trudeau – Discursos Opuestos, in which I compared how each leader used excellent strategic communications techniques to win their respective elections.

This article will focus on why both leaders may well lose their next elections.

Donald Trump was well on his way to win reelection in November. The U.S. economy was humming along well, employment figures and the stock markets were high, and American voters seemed ready to forgive his massive personal peccadillos in return for good economic management.

Then came the pandemic. This brought out all of Trump’s worse personal and political traits: utter mendacity, inability to provide policies and programs based on fact rather than intuition, an unwillingness to accept responsibility for errors, and his own inflated ego claiming always to be smarter than the experts. His attempts to blame current U.S. pandemic figures on the Chinese and the World Health Organization (WHO) rather than accept responsibility for his mismanagement have all cost him whatever credibility he once may have had.

Justin Trudeau appeared to have assumed the mantle of poster boy for international liberal democracy – a leader whose style and politics appeared to be the polar opposite of his neighbor to the south, and one whose international persona was highly regarded in an increasingly chaotic world. 

His management of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a textbook case in excellent crisis management. Unlike Trump, Trudeau has brought Canadians together and has achieved a coordinated response to the pandemic by all levels of government.

However, his decision to sole-source a $900 million government grant contract to an organization to which he has personal ties and that has repeatedly hired and paid his mother, wife, and brother for speaking engagements has tarnished his reputation irreparably, in my view. 

This is the third time that Trudeau has been implicated in conflicts of interest while in office and on all three occasions, he has demonstrated poor political judgment both in creating the crises as well as in managing them. Like Trump, in each case, he has been incapable of either accepting responsibility for his actions or of showing contrition. He may not survive politically this time around.

So, what are their options? Trump may not want to face defeat in November and find himself the target of multiple criminal processes. In my view, he could resign, strike a deal with Vice-President Mike Pence to pardon him for all crimes, and avoid prosecution and possible imprisonment. This worked for former President Richard Nixon in 1973 and could well work for Trump this year.

Trudeau could also decide to resign and pass the Prime Ministership to his deputy, Chrystia Freeland, who is a brilliant and popular leader in her own right, is untarnished by scandal, and could well win a majority government in the next election.

What is the likelihood of each scenario taking place? That may all depend upon how the political pressure that builds up on Trudeau and Trump in the coming weeks. Both leaders have a choice to resign, avoid the stigma of political defeat and salvage whatever remains of their political capital and legacy.

The Greeks say that those whom the gods would destroy they first make great.

So true, in the case of Trump and Trudeau.

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Edición: Ana Ordaz