Bibi is Back

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu appears to be heading to victory in Israel’s general election that was held on November 1st.

While votes are still being counted, officials expect Bibi’s coalition to obtain from 62 to 65 seats in the Knesset (parliament), giving him a majority of seats and Israeli’s the hope of political stability after years of electoral jockeying.

Bibi’s victory reflects Israel’s shift to the right. While Bibi is more a center-right leader the coalition will bring into the cabinet leaders of parties led by Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Both espouse traditional religious views that are homophobic anti-Arab, and rail against Israel’s secular Jewish population.  

According to AP, Ben-Gvir lives in the hardline West Bank settlement of Kiryat Arba and is a strong proponent of settlement construction (illegal under international law). He has described Arab members of the Knesset as “terrorists”, called for the deportation of those who are “disloyal”, and has called on the police to shoot Palestinian stone throwers.  

Bibi is a firm supporter of settlement building in the West Bank, opposes Palestinian statehood, and he won the election despite the fact he is currently on trial for bribery and breach of trust. 

The religious right is celebrating as its dream of making Israel an orthodox Jewish state appears closer than ever. Since Ben-Gvir and his followers expect him to become Minister of Public Security, he will be in a position where he will be able to weaken Israel’s democratic institutions and help (or guide) Bibi into making what Hebrew University political scientist Gayil Talshir believes will put Israel “on its way to become Orban’s Hungary”. 

Bibi is expected to maintain the current government’s decision to not export strategic arms and defense systems to Ukraine – something that has elicited much criticism in the West. The reason is simple: Russia has a large air force in Syria. Israel depends on Russian largesse to allow it to bomb Iranian bases and supply lines through which it ships rockets and other weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. As well, Israel seeks to encourage immigration of Russian Jews that depends on Russian President Putin’s good will. 

While Israel likes to consider itself “Western”, it is also conscious of the fact that it stands alone in the world and must defend itself regardless of what others may think.

Bibi’s victory is likely to create major challenges for both the Biden administration and International Jewry.

The U.S. administration continues to advocate the creation of a Palestinian state as a solution to the instability in the Middle East. Bibi will likely look towards a renewed Trump or Republican presidency in 2024 and a continuation of their strong political and personal friendship.

Relations with the Gulf States (resulting from the Abrahamic Accords) may prove problematic if the anti-Arab rhetoric and potential violence against Palestinians increases and affects the views of the Arab street. Relations with Egypt and Jordan may well suffer. To date, some Arab states have thrown their lot in with Israel in view of the greater threat to the region posed by Iran. Whether this can continue in the face of this new Israeli administration remains to be seen. 

Perhaps the greatest concern for the incoming administration will be maintaining good relations with the Jewish Diaspora. This has been Israel’s main source of support historically and a good proportion may balk at the extreme religiosity of this Netanyahu coalition. Indeed, the idea of a possible Jewish theocracy goes against the philosophy of Israel’s founders, and its reverting to 19th century values and politics will be anathema to many.

They will be torn between support for fellow Jews and opposition to a potentially illiberal and intolerant Israeli government. If the government succeeds in copying the template of extreme right-wing states rather than center-right states, the liberal opposition could find itself increasingly isolated from the levers of power and the institutions that provide checks and balances against excessive government power.

Thus, Israel and the world are in for some tumultuous developments as the world becomes a crucible in which liberalism and illiberalism do not mesh, and where antisemitism and antizionism are on the rise. 

One can only hope that moderate Israeli’s will find ways to contain the government’s direction and power and limit potential damage.

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Keep reading: The Challenges of Tomorrow

Edición: Laura Espejo