Pushing Back

For the past few years, many observers, myself included, have been waxing eloquent about the new world order emerging from the ashes of the 20th century. 

The transition from a world divided between communism and capitalism has now become a world in which dictatorships and authoritarian governments (both right and left) are pitched against liberal democracies. 

Recently, the dictatorships appeared to be winning, attracting many developing countries whose leaders are more concerned with perpetuating their power rather than in respecting democratic principles and human rights.

Indeed, the new pole in this emerging bipolar world appeared to be the China-Russia-Iran axis that would vie with the West for global influence and compete economically and militarily.

Throughout the pandemic, we saw the many protests caused by the impact of lockdowns on suspending of established political processes, freedom of movement and individual citizen rights in many western democracies. 

What many of us didn’t factor into our thinking was the impact of oppressive dictatorships on the populations of some of these authoritarian countries, and the breaking point at which people would react.

There comes a point at which courage and action replace fear and stagnation. When people who have nothing, they have nothing to lose. 

During the past few months, we have seen how this axis of dictatorships has met its match in populations fed up with increased oppression, who believe that fighting is the only possible recourse regardless of the personal or economic cost.

Each has had its breaking point, and each is undergoing a strong challenge to its power and hold over its population.

In China, hundreds of thousands are protesting several issues. 

Firstly, the government’s gross mismanagement of the COVID crisis and concomitant forced lockdowns of many cities isolating hundreds of millions of citizens and immobilizing the economy has reached its breaking point. 

Second, the recent consolidation of absolute power by Xi Jing Ping and the elimination of any attempts towards a collegial leadership has aroused deep anger among people.

Thirdly, Mr. Xi’s decision to revert to greater state control over the economy and impose “Xi thought” has broken the foundation of the Chinese system – a social compact where the Communist party has full political power, but the economy is open, allowing people the freedom to make money and rise out of poverty.

The current Chinese demonstrations illustrate the growing frustration that many Chinese feel towards the Communist Party in general and Xi in particular.

Iran is also in turmoil since the murder of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini by so called “religious” police for not wearing her chador properly. Most Iranians today have little recollection of pre-revolution Iran and only know the economic privation arising out of decades of sanctions and isolation. Iranian youth are well educated. They see few, if any, options in its restrictive economic and religious atmosphere and they are demonstrating their hatred of the Mullahs and their regime as they fight for economic and personal freedom.

This struggle began with women – now all sectors of society are involved, leaving the dictatorship isolated and fearful.

Russian President Putin is also in trouble.

When he started his unprovoked war against Ukraine, he kept developments from his people, keeping them unaware of the reality of the situation. As men began to be drafted to fight while poorly trained and armed with tens of thousands fleeing over Russia’s borders to avoid becoming cattle fodder, and reports from soldiers at the front began to filter through to the general population, people began to demonstrate against him and his ill-conceived war.

How will these situations play out?

It is hard to determine at this time.

People in all three countries are angry, and anger has replaced fear.

Fear is the primary weapon of tyrants, and they appear to be losing their strength.

Can the people prevail? Can they organize a strong political opposition to match their determination in the street? Can people who have never known a day of democracy create a democratic system from scratch, or will the current dictatorships be replaced by other forms of dictatorship as has happened in their past?

These are questions that remain to be answered.

But it is evident that previous predictions of a solid global dictatorial front may be premature.

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Edición: Laura Espejo