Spain’s Future

On May 28th, Spain underwent regional elections that proved to weaken the position of the Socialist coalition under the ruling PSOE Socialist Party (along with its partner from the radical left, Juntas Podemos) while strengthening the standing of the conservative Partido Popular (PP) and its far-right partner VOX party.

Although the PP’s candidates won in most Spanish cities, they largely failed to secure outright majorities. Gaining control of city halls across the country will require the center-right party to enter into coalitions or governing pacts with the far-right Vox party.

Only three of the 12 regions holding elections will retain Socialist dominance but by very narrow margins, with the rest likely go to the PP, albeit with coalitions or informal support agreements with the far-right Vox party.

"The map changes completely and is a boost for Alberto Nuñez Feijoo - the new leader of the PP - ahead of the elections at the end of the year," said Ignacio Jurado, professor of political science at the Carlos III University.

"In votes the right-wing bloc expands but not dramatically. But that swing is enough to shift the center of gravity from the left to the right," Jurado said.

In the municipal vote, the PP won 31.5% of votes compared with 28.2% for the PSOE, a 1.2 percentage point decrease for the Socialists over 2019, but almost a nine-point increase for the PP, which benefited from the collapse of the centrist Ciudadanos (Citizens) party.

The PP won in seven of the 12 regions contested and dominated in several regions previously won by the PSOE, including Valencia, Aragón and La Rioja. It remains to be seen whether the PP will have to rely on support from Vox to form regional governments.

There are three major results from this election.

The first is that current Prime minister Pedro Sanchez has moved the national elections originally scheduled for December to July ‘23. He has done this to ensure that the leftist coalition doesn’t deteriorate any further once the PP and its partners take power and demonstrate a different vision in Spanish politics.

The second is that the extreme right-wing VOX party that was at first a fringe party has now become normalized in Spanish politics and will either be major supporters of PP governments or actually become its coalition partner in a number of Spanish municipal and regional governments.

This in itself is a major breakthrough in Spanish politics since the extreme right has not been in government since the Franco era. In addition, voting for VOX will now be seen as an option for those dissatisfied with Spain’s radical leftist swing during the past 5 years.

And the third is the almost disappearance of the extreme leftist party Juntas Podemos whose policies and influence led many Spaniards to reject the ruling coalition at the polls and whose lingering association might sink it in the upcoming national election.

From a foreign policy point of view, the PSOE government has been a strong supporter of Ukraine in its current war with Russia while Unidas Podemos has been stuck on the fence.

A PP-VOX government will solidify and enhance Spain’s military support for Ukraine from a government that is in lock step with its NATO allies. 

As well, the almost disappearance of Unidas Podemos from the halls of government in July will likely end Spain’s current warm relations with Latin American leftist dictatorships and government at a time when these governments are suffering from poor economic and social results since they have come to power. Indeed, many observers argue that Unidas Podemos obtained financial support from Chavista groups in Venezuela and returned the favor by supporting leftist groups and parties in the hemisphere.

Should the PP win nationally in July, it would also return Spain to a predominantly two-party system (PSOE and PP) after years in which extremist, nationalist, and separatist parties held the balance of power and forced successive governments to cater to their priorities against the will of a majority of Spaniards.

This is why I see the results of this election as a watershed moment for 21st century Spain and a major change of course both domestically and in its foreign policy.

[email protected]

Keep reading: Why?

Edición: Fernando Sierra