Spain

On July 23rd Spaniards went to the polls and the results appear to indicate a hung parliament. 

While polls had indicated that the right of center Partido Popular (PP) would win a majority either on its own or in coalition with the extremist party VOX, socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his left of center coalition survived. 

Both coalitions fell short of gaining an absolute majority and thus each must seek partners with some of the regional and separatist parties. 

This will be difficult for the PP since no party wants to govern in the same cabinet as VOX. Indeed, although VOX is the kingmaker on the right, it lost 19 out of 52 seats while the PP gained some 30 overall.

VOX’s platform includes an end to LGBTQ rights, to assisted dying, women’s rights, and other equality policies. It is rooted in the ideology of former dictator Francisco Franco’s Spain (1939-75) and uses many of the Francoist symbols and fascist slogans.

The Socialist Party (PSOE are its Spanish initials) was expected to lose significantly. However, Prime Minister Sanchez increased his seats from 120 to 122, and has a good number of smaller parties willing to join a coalition. The possibility of a government with VOX participation galvanized the left to turn out and vote en masse to give Sanchez the votes he needed to stay in the game.

While the PSOE may believe that voters voted for its policies and record in office, I think many voted strategically to avoid a government with VOX representation.

Since no party other than the PP is willing to partner with VOX, their vote paid off.

Sanchez’ current coalition includes Basque and Catalan separatist parties – a factor much criticized by many Spaniards. The Catalans separatist party JUNTS (Together) is looking for Sanchez to permit a referendum on independence and issue a pardon for party leaders in jail or exile for their activities in the illegal 2017 referendum in exchange for their support. 

“We are not here to save the kingdom of Spain but to serve Catalonia,” said Miriam Nogueras, JUNTS’ parliamentary spokesperson. “We will not make Sánchez prime minister in exchange for nothing.” 

Absent this, they have said that support would be withheld, and this could leave both the PSOE and the PP unable to govern – leaving a caretaker government in place until new elections can be held in December.

It would be constitutionally impossible for Sánchez to allow an independence referendum and difficult to offer a full amnesty. “But those are maximalist demands,” said Pablo Simón, a professor of politics at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. “Together is starting out hardline, then let’s see what happens.”

Without JUNTS, Sanchez’ coalition would have 172 seats in parliament – five short of a majority. One possibility would be that JUNTS abstains from voting a confidence motion, reducing the majority of seeds Sanchez would need for a majority to 171 since abstentions are not factored into voting results.

Spain remains deeply polarized between right and left, between those who support the current decentralized and progressive governance system and those who hanker for a united conservative centralized Spain.

Antonio Castillo, a Madrid-based PSOE supporter, observed to Al Jazeera that ““Yet another European government with the right and the far right in power in Spain would have constituted a huge problem. In that sense, these elections were fundamental for the continent,” he said.

“I think these elections form a key part of what is going to be the really big battle that’s yet to come: the European elections of May 2024, which I’d say is going to be a struggle for Europe’s soul.”

Until negotiations for a coalition gel, and a new government is sworn in, the battle for Spain’s soul will continue. 

On the right, a coalition that wants to take Spain, in the view of many, backwards in terms of social policy. 

On the left, a coalition that includes parties some of whose ultimate objective is to destroy Spain as a state and carve our independent mini states.

Let the gods roll the dice! 

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