Managing the Coronavirus

Eduardo del Buey
Foto: Notimex
La Jornada Maya

Miércoles 11 de marzo, 2020

The current COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic is the global topic of choice, and it affects us all in two ways.

The first is governance.

How our leaders manage this crisis will determine the amount of confidence people have in their system of governance and, to date, results have been mixed.

In my crisis communications courses I always underscore the need for leaders to be forthcoming with the truth and with the facts, and to be as open as possible at all times since an informed public is one that can cope with any emergency. I also emphasize the need for all to speak with one voice and transmit one message

On March 4th President Trump told FOX News that “The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing, and we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion,” Mr. Trump said. “That was a decision we disagreed with. I don’t think we would have made it, but for some reason it was made. But we’ve undone that decision.”

To put it bluntly, Trump lied.

President Obama never did any such thing, and this was one more attempt by Trump to shift the focus from his own ignorance and incompetence in managing this crisis by blaming Democrats and the media for creating a “hoax” to quote Trump. In recent days Trump and many of his Republican followers have accused the Democrats of using the coronavirus as a way to attack his administration rather than accept that the pandemic is a real threat and that Trump personally has mishandled the crisis from the start through his mixed and false messages.

Furthermore, in the same interview, Trump stated that he thought that the 3.4 por ciento death rate determined by global health experts and the World Health Organization (WHO) was “a really false number”, claiming that “now, this is just a hunch”.

A President who makes false life or death decisions on his hunches rather than on science-based facts has no business in managing a crisis of this magnitude, especially when he contradicts his own experts who are literally sitting by his side.

Like it or not, many people in the United States believe what the President says regardless of his constant lying, and this poses a clear and present danger not only to the lives of many but to the viability of democracy.

If people follow the President’s advice to go to work even if they are sick, the virus will spread even faster, and the death rate could soar. We have seen the effects that the anti-vaxers have had on the resurgence of many diseases that were once believed eradicated. Should people follow Trump’s advice, many more could well get sick and many more could well die.

It is one thing for a leader to try to contain panic. It is quite another to create an atmosphere in which experts are ignored and discredited, and “hunches” form the basis of presidential decision making.

I understand the President’s fears.

A massive crisis could well affect his reelection in November.

His actions always concern only his interests regardless of their effect on others. This has been the hallmark of his personal and political life, and he does not appear to have learned how to govern for the benefit of others.

His lack of empathy is once again evident in his management of this crisis.

In this case, he is trying to lay the blame on others through lies and misrepresentations, and many are believing him.

His actions also underscore his fear that the coronavirus will have an effect on the stock market, the success of which is key to his reelection in November.

This is the second way that the pandemic can and does affect us all.

The travel industry is laying off thousands of employees as people decide to nest at home rather than risk contagion through airplanes and airports.

The hotel industry faces similar problems, as do all of the service and entertainment industries that depend on the movement and gatherings of people.

Already resorts are reporting reduced demand from potential holiday makers, and mass entertainment events will likely suffer should they take place or be postponed or cancelled. Indeed, at the time or writing, the future of the Tokyo Olympics, scheduled for this summer, is uncertain, especially given Japan’s geographic proximity to the pandemic’s origins.

Manufacturing concerns in China are still not operating at full capacity as many workers remain quarantined or unable to return to their homes after the Chinese New Year. This is affecting production chains around the world, given the almost absolute dependency that factories around the world have on Chinese components.

As supply of these products dries up, supply chains around the world are either slowing down or stopping completely, which will lead to more lay-offs globally, and subsequently reduced demand for products and services. This could lead to the shrinkage of many national economies, with a possible future impact on global stability and social peace.

As trade begins to slow, global transportation chains will suffer, leading to major layoffs in the shipping and ancillary industries. Already we are seeing how many airlines are laying off employees and cancelling flights, and this reduces the ability of economies to stimulate demand.

The more people are laid off, the fewer buy products and use services as they cope with the impact on their incomes on the one hand, and the increase in prices that reduced supply could create.

As well, stock markets have become volatile. If declines continue it may affect the retirement funds of many as well as their confidence in the medium to long term viability of their investments. In a recent article, The Guardian reported that the coronavirus has wiped out some $9 trillion of wealth around the world since it began, and things are expected to get worse before they begin to improve.

Investors will likely question the wisdom of placing so much productive capacity in one single country – China – that has been responsible for three pandemics in fifteen years. The restructuring of the global manufacturing system will take time, as the market shakes itself out and redefines production locations and value chains.

The disinformation being peddled by the U.S. President, as well as the conflicting messages being transmitted by senior U.S. leaders, are creating even more distrust of the institutions of governance upon which we depend. When a major world leader casts aspersions on fact based science and on the very institutions that are there to provide expert management of pandemics, the results can be catastrophic, leading to more anxiety on the part of the public and more insecurity in markets.

The need for honesty and openness is most important in a crisis that threatens many lives around the world. The need for fact-based reporting and basing ourselves on science rather than on the uninformed hunches of one man is essential if society is to address the challenge and find ways to mitigate it.

Social stability and market confidence depends on the faith that people have in their institutions.

For the past three years, Trump has weakened the institutions of governance and depended more on his self-imagined expertise rather than on the knowledge and experience of experts.

This could well come back to bite him.

Should his lies lead to an increase in the number of people infected and in the number of deaths in the United States, Democrats will have a powerful tool to use against him in November. Republican members of Congress as well as those at the state and local levels who thought until now that they would win on Trump’s coattails and feared his wrath will have to reevaluate their support for and fear of the President should he begin to prove a liability to their own electoral fortunes.

If the market and the economy go into a tailspin that lasts until election day, the one issue that has bound many voters to Trump despite their dislike for him personally – the strength of the economy and of their own portfolios – will dissipate, and a moderate Democrat leader could steal some of Trump’s thunder and votes.

In a crisis, a strong hand on the tiller is essential to steer society through.

The U.S. lacks this strong hand, and the possible damage to the country, its citizens, and the world, is real.

[b][email protected][/b]