Iran

My first diplomatic posting was in Iran from 1976 to 1978 – the last two years of the Shah’s rule.

There are eerie similarities between revolutionary Iran in the late nineteen seventies and Iran today.

The Shah and his allies controlled the economy through force and corruption. The United States provided a security umbrella as well as the military equipment necessary to oppress dissent. 

The Shah’s aim was to create a modern, Westernized state, while keeping a good slice of the pie for himself. He and his cronies held onto power using political oppression as a weapon against those dissatisfied with the Shah’s goals and ambitions.

While the outcome of the revolution was an Islamic state, the reality is that opposition to the Shah’s regime was both Islamist and social democratic.

The social democrats sought to create a democratic state along Western lines and leaders such as Mehdi Bazargan and Shahpur Bakhtiar worked with the National Front to see this goal implemented. 

At the same time, the Islamists under Ayatollah Khomeini used modern communications techniques to reach millions through the mosques and foment the creation of an Islamic state. Their ability to mobilize masses and to manipulate the democrats into thinking that they would play a role in post-Shah Iran ensured their triumph. The Islamists defeated the democrats, some of whom were subsequently assassinated later in the 80’s and 90’s in the countries where they sought refuge.

Fast forward to today.

The current regime of Ayatollah Khamenei is not as stable as followers would wish. In 2009, the regime witnessed a “Green Revolution” aimed against the regime that had stolen elections from the moderates. While they were defeated on the street and in the courts, these demonstrations underscored some deep opposition to the regime and the direction in which it was taking Iran.

Today, the murder of 22-year-old Maska Amini by moral police for simply wearing her hijab incorrectly has made her the rallying point for opponents of the regime. There is again blood in the streets as this has ignited street protests across the breadth of Iran. 

While the hijab is a main focal point, it represents the oppression of Iran’s millions of young people many of whom are highly educated and see no future as things stand. They seek personal freedom within a political system that provides the space for them to enjoy it. They seek contact with the global community and an end to the isolation that the regime has created through its support for nuclear arms and terrorist groups. The hijab is a strong symbol and shedding it represents shedding a system of values that many of them reject.

However, one must be careful in extrapolating from this a conclusion that a post-Islamist Iran will become a modern westernized state.

Millions of Iranians continue to be deeply religious and reject what they see as the permissive lifestyles of the West. While they may not support the oppression by vicious security forces, they do share the Islamic values of the governing class. While they may not agree with the high levels of corruption of the ruling religious class, they do not wish to see the imposition of Western values that are anathema to their own cultural beliefs.

As we watch events unfold in Iran, it will be interesting for the global audience to see who emerges from the opposition to lead the demonstrators and perhaps offer an alternative to the ruling Mullahs.

The interplay between the armed forces, the Revolutionary Guards, the Security Services, and the Islamist Police forces (like the morality police who started the whole current mess) will be crucial in determining who winds up leading the country, what their governance proposal is, and how they can achieve the consensus required to achieve political and social stability.

The Mullahs and their followers have few places to go should they decide to flee. As Shiites, they are not welcome in the majority Sunni Muslim world, nor would they choose the West. China and Russia have their own challenges with Muslim minorities, and African and Asian nations are majority Sunni states. Their only viable option is Iraq – yet it has its own sectarian challenges and a weak central government.

In the meanwhile, while the world looks on and cheers the demonstrators on, we must remember that revolutions almost never result in the system of government for which one would wish. 

We have seen how the attempted imposition of democracy in other countries with no history of democratic rule has not always worked out. We should not set an unrealistic goal that Iran will transform into a liberal democracy given the composition of its population and its history.

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Edición: Laura Espejo