Lessons Learned?

On November 8th the U.S. held its midterm elections, often perceived as a referendum for or against the party in power. Media and pundits expected a Republican tsunami – yet this did not materialize. The Democrats won the Senate by a hair and lost the House by a few seats.

The Democrats kept the damage to a minimum, but still lost the all-important House. Meanwhile, the Republicans saw how many of ex-President Donald Trump’s candidates went down in flames. President Biden came out unscathed, while Trump failed to win over more voters and took a beating from members of his own party who blamed him for losing three elections in a row and for dragging them down with him.

There are lessons to be learned by both parties, and they have two years to address them and find solutions before the big test in 2024.

Republicans are at a crossroads. With ex-president Trump set to run again, they will have to decide whether they follow a leader who has lost three critical elections in a row – the 2020 Presidential election, the Georgia senate run-off that same year, and the recent mid-terms.

They must decide if they want to relitigate past elections with a candidate who is divisive and who has not been able to win or if they want to set a new course for the Republican Party that provides voters with a positive vision of the future.

Should they choose Trump, they may likely lose in 2024. At exit polls after voting, many Republicans claimed that Trump’s insults and manners left much to be desired, and that it is time to look towards the future. 

Should Republicans choose a different leader – one who combines a right-wing agenda with a history of winning, then the obvious candidate would be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who just swept the Florida election and has hundreds of IOUs from Republicans across the country whom he has helped win their own elections.

Democrats also have a choice to make.

While President Biden has passed important legislation, chances are that he will be distracted by the Republican run House of Representatives as they likely block many of his initiatives and seek payback for the various congressional investigations into the Trump administration. As well, he will be 82 years old at election time, and many believe he is past his best-buy date.

If Trump is chosen candidate and Biden runs, the resulting campaign would be a repeat of 2020 much to the frustration of U.S. voters. If DeSantis is candidate, Biden could well lose given the Republican’s the appeal of his relative youth and proven reputation as a 44-year-old election winner who connects well and incorporates the Trump administration’s policies but lacks the latter’s negative political persona.

One potential Democrat candidate that stands out is Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. He is the most in-demand Cabinet official at major Democrat events and has many political IOU’s owing from officials that he has supported for years. He performs brilliantly on television and before audiences and is always well prepared, charismatic, and has excellent ideas that can bring Democrats together. He regularly appears on FOX News and performs flawlessly. He would be a worthy adversary against both Trump and DeSantis, and could, in my opinion, prove a winner.

When Buttigieg is mentioned, some people ask if a gay married man could be President. I remind them that in 2008 Americans asked if the country was ready for an African American president. Turns out it was, and Barack Obama served for two terms. 

That said, the Democrats would be well served to broaden their appeal by way of a larger selection of younger, moderate, left of Centre candidates. At the same time, they need to take a page from the Republicans when it comes to party unity and avoid the public squabbling that has hobbled them in previous elections. This is even more important as we will likely find ourselves in a recession by the time of the next election and the economy and economic policy will be a major discussion point.

The world will watch as U.S. politics shake themselves out since the outcome will affect us all. We can only wish American voters much wisdom and critical judgment when casting their vote. 

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Keep reading: Winners and Losers

Edición: Laura Espejo