Tanks A Lot

Russian president Vladimir Putin came to power in 1999 with three geopolitical goals in mind: to return the states of the former USSR that achieved independence in 1991 to Russian control, to diminish the power of the European Union, and to destroy NATO solidarity.

Achieving these three goals remains Russian foreign policy. Indeed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine serves to help it achieve the three goals if the West lets Putin have his way.

Russia has always considered Ukraine to be Russian, despite the treaty of 2004 when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons to secure Russian and American guarantees of respect for its freedom.

In this war, Ukraine has blunted the Russian offensive, has deployed excellent strategies and fighting forces and civilian population have shown great courage. What Putin thought would be a three-day campaign has turned into a yearlong quagmire for his troops and a huge blemish on Russia’s supposed military prowess. Today, absent its nuclear arsenal, Russia is a middle power and an economically developing country with not much to offer except for weapons, some raw materials, and vodka.

But Putin’s other two goals may be closer to achievement than one would like.

The international community is divided on the sanctions that the West has placed on Russia. Some European Union members are thinking with their hearts and imposing strong sanctions regardless of the costs to their treasuries or the comfort of their citizens. Others, like Hungary and Germany are resisting to a lesser or greater degree. 

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is at best a pragmatist and at worst a Putin ally. Meanwhile, the EU is having significant difficulty in getting him to implement its sanctions and trade policies.

German Chancellor Olof Scholz has been pro-Russian since his youth as a radical socialist, crossing over into East Germany with many special privileges in the 1980’s. Until last week, he had resisted not only selling or donating German made Leopard II tanks to Ukraine but also allowing other states that have the tanks (like Poland) from donating or selling them to the war-torn country. He has, however, provided significant aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict.

German public opinion was equally divided between those who supported giving tanks to Ukraine and those who didn’t. As a democratically elected leader, Scholz had to consider the deep division among Germans on this issue and decide the best way forward.

He did this on January 24 when The White House and the German Chancellery announced that the U.S. would give Ukraine Abrams tanks and that Germany would donate Leopard II tanks and allow other countries to do likewise.

Recently, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had ruled out sophisticated tanks for Ukraine at this time. The U.S. appeared to have several concerns about providing tanks. It takes considerable time and effort to learn how to operate the complex controls in modern tanks. The question was whether Ukrainian troops could use this equipment effectively, or whether there were other weapon systems such as drones that can contain Russian tanks and troops with greater ease and less effort.

Prior to this, President Biden had told media that Ukraine would have all of the equipment that it needed. It seems that the White House has prevailed over the Pentagon, and that Biden has convinced Scholz.

Many around the world are concerned about escalating the conflict to the point where Russia can prove its claim that this is a war between NATO and Russia thus justifying the use of nuclear weapons. Leaders are divided on the following question: would the Russian military allow Putin to plunge the world into a nuclear war or are Putin’s threats ultimately empty?

Some are willing to call Putin’s bluff, others refuse to be drawn into a potentially deadly confrontation.

But the game has changed, and the ball is now in Putin’s court.

The bottom line is that Ukraine must not be allowed to lose, and that Russia must not be allowed to win.

The question is, what risks are Western leaders willing to take to ensure this outcome?

In calling his bluff, it appears that they have now determined that the risks are acceptable.

Edición: Laura Espejo