A Time to Go

Mark Twain once wrote that “politicians and diapers must be changed regularly, and for the same reason”.

Kenny Rogers once wrote that “you got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them”.

Both sayings apply to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

He appears to be readying himself for a fourth electoral campaign as Liberal leader at a time when his party is polling 20% lower than his Conservative opposition – a new low.

Many Liberal supporters will argue that he has done a good job, especially in managing the COVID epidemic, when government policies helped thousands of Canadian businesses and citizens survive the economic consequences of the shutdowns by helping many to withstand the financial blow.

They will claim that he has raised tens of thousands of families and children out of poverty through his legislation on financial support for families and the dental care plan for children (forced upon him by the coalition NDP party).

Others will congratulate his government for successfully negotiating a renewed North American Trade Pact.

Moreover, they will state that his main opponent, Pierre Poilievre, has taken the Conservative Party down the same path as the U.S. Republican party has taken, and that his playbook is reminiscent of Donald Trump’s.

This is supposed to turn Canadians off to Poilievre and his party. 

Indeed, many Canadians dislike Poilievre immensely. 

However, they are also very tired of Trudeau. Apart from his successes are many scandals including his ignoring conflict of interest rules by vacationing at the island owned by the Aga Kahn’s whose foundation received tens of millions of dollars from his government.  Also noteworthy were the results of inquiries citing his inappropriate actions and unethical firing of the justice minister who resisted dropping bribery charges against engineering firm SNC Lavalin, the WE charity scandal in which his mother , wife and brother were paid large sums for their services, allegations of groping women in his earlier years, ridiculing his role as Prime Minister on a trip to India dressing up as in traditional Indian garb, and questionable inaction in the Chinese election interference scandal and his accusation that the Indian Government was responsible for the murder of a Sikh Canadian on Canadian soil. 

It’s therefore no surprise that fatigue has set in, and many Liberals and independents may well decide to stay at home rather than give Trudeau a fourth mandate.

And this is his conundrum. 

Does he leave after winning 3 elections in eight years, or does he risk losing the next election.

Trudeau’s father, the late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, faced the same dilemma in 1984. Seeing that the opposition Conservatives were on the rise and that his government was suffering from fatigue, he took a walk in the February snow and returned that night announcing his retirement.

He preferred to salvage his legacy and not go down to certain defeat.

The time has come for Justin Trudeau to do the same thing.

He has had eight years, and dissatisfaction has set in. 

The health system is cratering, housing prices are beyond the reach of most Canadians, interest rates are high, the cost of living is unsustainable for many, and people are demoralized. There has been real and perceived corruption in quite a few cases, and the idealism he seemed to bring in 2015 has evolved into perceived cynicism. Nowhere is this more evident than in his recent reversal regarding a major pillar of his government, the carbon tax, in order to keep Liberal parliamentarians from Atlantic Canada from losing their seats.

At the end of the day, politics is all about perception.

Poilievre has benefitted greatly by the many scandals, poor leadership and management of the Canadian economy by Mr. Trudeau and his Liberal government. Many argue that it is Mr. Trudeau and his government who are the cause of his misfortune. 

Many voters will rather stay at home rather than cast a vote for Trudeau come election day. And as we have learned from other campaigns in other jurisdictions, staying at home is a vote for the opposition. 

If he cares about trying to keep his party in power, he should do everything he can to avoid such a loss. 

While his ego may tell him that he is invincible, he is not.

He must retire for the sake of his country and his party and give someone else a chance to establish credentials and credibility in time to face an election campaign that promises to be difficult.

And the time to retire in now.

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Edition: Estefanía Cardeña