Germany

Last week I wrote about two elections that will likely have international repercussions: the regional and municipal elections in Spain and the presidential election in Turkey. 

In Spain, we have seen the rout of the left and the rapid ascent of the extreme right VOX party that stands a good chance of ending up in a coalition government after the next national election on July 23rd – the first time an extreme right-wing party joins a government since dictator Francisco Franco’s death in 1975. 

In Turkey, we saw how President Erdogan cemented his hold on government by winning the presidency yet again, and how his inexorable march to the right is affecting both democracy and foreign policy. In Italy, we have seen how the extreme right is now in power, and in Poland we have witnessed mass demonstrations against the current government’s move to the extreme right.

The next in line appears to be Germany – the cradle of National Socialism and the evil that it unleashed upon the world beginning in 1933 through its defeat in 1945.

The extreme right-wing Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) in now in second place according to national polls taken last week. The AfD enjoys the support of 18% of Germans – tying with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing left of center SPD.

After poll results were announced, the Deutsche Welle (DW) agency reported that its investigation shows that 65% of AfD supporters stand against the current government’s immigration policies, 47% against energy and climate change, 43% against economic policy, 29% social issues, 25% foreign policy, and 23% inflation. But only 32% claimed to fully support the AfD’s policy proposals.

Immigration and the perceived drowning of national identity and cultural “purity” seem to provide the underpinning support for the AfD. This is the same issue that divides many European countries as massive numbers of migrants from North Africa and the Middle East continue to seek a better life in Europe.

The poll appears to reflect a protest against the more established parties rather than a move towards neo-Nazism. 

The next federal election in Germany will take place on or before October 26, 2025. Scholz’s beleaguered government may not last until then, and the prospects for early elections are not beyond the realm of reason. 

The issues facing the German electorate are many, and it remains to be seen if the campaign is a normal competition among political parties or if it becomes an anyone but the AfD competition. One wonders if those who support the AfD will factor history into their decision or whether they will opt for a protest vote that focuses on the discontent of voters with traditional parties and looks for a new path with all that a strong showing by the AfD implies.

Interestingly, the AfD is strongest in the eastern most states that once formed the communist German Democratic Republic. This matched trends in Poland and Hungary, where voters are electing governments shifting to the extreme right in which democratic institutions are perceived to be weak and ineffectual and a good number of voters seek a return to what once was post-war Europe – a continent of white Christian states with strong cultures and values.

Many Europeans are uncomfortable with the cultural mosaic that Europe has become, and Putin’s Russia is articulating the kind of nationalism, strong government, and xenophobia that many seek. 

It seems that authoritarianism remains strong in the former Soviet satellites, and that Western style democratic institutions lack the strength or depth with which to counter nostalgia for some false utopian past.

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Edition: Estefanía Cardeña