The New Middle East

On October 6, 1973, combined Arab forces launched a surprise attack on Israel and shocked Israeli intelligence agencies and the world. After days of fighting, then U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger negotiated a disengagement agreement between Egypt and Israel, a process that culminated with the Camp David Peace Accord in 1979.

Fifty years and one day later, Hamas launched a massive surprise attack on Israel from Gaza and has created a new reality for the Middle East. Hezbollah in Lebanon and the West Bank remains quiet at time of writing, but their trigger fingers as well as those of their Iranian patrons must be itching to join the fight.

Hamas is funded and supported by Iran and Russia. Iran seeks the destruction of the Jewish state as a major component of its foreign policy. 

Fifty years ago, the attack led to peace of sorts.

Today’s reality is vastly different.

Israel is a deeply divided country with over 50% of the population opposed to Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government. While Israelis will come together at this time of crisis, Mr. Netanyahu will likely be blamed for the massive intelligence breakdown that led to this conflict.

Mr. Netanyahu’s government is right-wing and nationalistic, but like any government suffering such an attack, it will likely invade Gaza if cooler heads do not prevail or if the attacks continue. Revenge will be on the minds of most Israelis and Jews in the Diaspora, and this pressure will be hard to contain. 

The U.S. will be divided between those seeking an Israeli invasion to appeal to their constituency and those who support the Palestinians and hate Israel.

Unlike 1973, when the enemies of Israel had a leader in Anwar Sadat who sought peaceful negotiations, none seem to exist today. Hamas seeks the complete destruction of Israel. So do its fellow terrorist allies Hezbollah and Iran.

Keep reading: Posición neutral respalda al terrorismo: Embajada de Israel ante postura de México por conflicto

Consequently, should Israel invade Gaza, it will find it difficult to disengage afterwards. Israel may kill Hamas leaders and destroy its infrastructure, although this will entail house to house fighting against an enemy that is used to hit and run tactics. In many cases, traditional military forces have had a difficult time in fighting with terrorist forces and dealing with world opinion when civilian casualties increase.

The reality is that, unlike 1973, there is no one around with whom Israel can negotiate. The Netanyahu government is perceived as being weak and it fights its internal battles with the Israeli opposition. Its much-vaunted intelligence services will be at each other’s throats in a massive blame game. That said, nothing unites like being attacked. But it will be difficult to sustain that national unity when the blame game begins.

1973 was also a traditional war between armies.

Today, this war is being fought on television and on social media, with Israelis witnessing civilian brothers and sisters being kidnapped and taken hostage into Gaza, and with other Israeli civilians being murdered in cold blood. Whole settlements have been taken over by Hezbollah, with terror and murder being fed into Israeli living rooms. 

Their anger will not be easy to placate, and cool heads in Israel will be few.

Israelis will be asking themselves if there is any chance for peace at all. Hard-liners will eliminate a two-state solution permanently from the Israeli diplomatic lexicon. Israel’s allies will be hard pressed to rein in Israeli anger and public opinion.

Iran may well be emboldened to up the ante by providing Iranian military support from occupied Syria and opening yet another front. Israel may find itself fighting on three fronts and on its very homeland. Are the Israeli Defense Forces up to it? Can the Netanyahu government survive? Will world opinion support Israel should it invade Gaza, or will it continue to isolate Israel internationally?

The New Middle East reality is one that few expected would happen so soon and with such brutal force.

The challenges are huge, and the possibility of an eventual win-win solution impossible given Hamas and Hezbollah’s stated goal of destroying the Jewish state. 

U.S. President Biden has come out strongly supporting Israel and warning Iran and others not to seek advantage. But can the U.S. influence a cessation of violence since the Biden administration put Israeli-Palestinian affairs on the back burner and has all but ignored the situation. Does the U.S. still have the desire and global clout to call the shots as they did in the seventies?

We are slipping into an unknown where the only thing we know is that we know nothing.

And that is a dangerous place to be.

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Keep reading: The Alliance of the Right


Edition: Estefanía Cardeña