Canada and India

Canadian Indian relations are at their lowest point in years. India’s latest step has been to expel 41 Canadian diplomats. 

This, in retaliation for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent statements accusing the Indian government of orchestrating the murder of a prominent Sikh-Canadian leader whom the Indian government accused of terrorism.

Canada is home to the largest Sikh population outside of India – some 770,000 concentrated in Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. They are a potent political force and vital to Canada’s governing Liberal Party. So much so that when Justin Trudeau first won office in 2015, he appointed four Sikh ministers to his cabinet.

Of 388 Members of Parliament, 18 are Sikhs. Of these, 8 parliamentary seats are completely controlled by Sikhs, and they play a significant role in 15 others. The federal leader of Canada’s fourth political party, the New Democratic Party, is himself a Sikh.

India has long accused successive Canadian governments of being soft on Sikh nationalism and on intent on protecting Sikh separatists in return for their votes in federal elections.

Both Prime Ministers Trudeau and Modi are playing a maximalist game.

Indian Prime Minister Modi is intent on making India a global power and ensuring that Indian interests are strongly enforced as he seeks to consolidate his power and turn India into a Hindu state rather that the multicultural entity envisaged by India’s post-colonial founders. 

Modi has no time for Sikh separatists who seek to create an independent Khalistan at the expense of Indian unity and Hindu primacy.

He appears determined to brook no opposition from any quarter.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau needs Sikh votes in view of the federal election scheduled for 2025. Moreover, and perhaps, more importantly, he cannot be seen to tolerate the murder of a Canadian on home soil by a foreign government. 

Although Trudeau has assured the Indian government that any acts of violence will be punished, he also has reassured Canadians that he respects free speech and the rights of Sikhs to speak and organize freely as long as they do not violate Canadian laws.

Considering the high percentage of Sikhs in Canada’s population, Trudeau understandably wants to assert the rights of Sikhs and show disapproval of the drift toward Hindu nationalism in India.

Basing his accusations on intelligence gathered by Canadian security sources and those of some of Canada’s allies, he raised these accusations in Parliament much to the chagrin of the Modi government. 

Canada’s allies have a difficult task ahead. On the one hand, it is likely that one or more of the members of the Five Eyes intelligence sharing group (United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada) contributed to the Canadian government’s findings.

On the other, the West is in strong competition with Russia and China to consolidate good relations with India and prevent the other side from gaining strategic value.

And Modi is happy to have his country courted by all sides and giving India the geopolitical importance that it seeks.

Canada on the other hand is now more isolated internationally. It has seen its relations ruptured with Saudi Arabia in 2018 when Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie criticized that government for its human rights record. Recently both governments decided to mend fences and named ambassadors after a five-year hiatus.

Canada and China are also estranged after the arrest of a Chinese executive from Huawei at the behest of the United States and the subsequent imprisonment of two Canadians by the Chinese government who have only recently been released. 

Thus, the Trudeau government has limited relations with three essential countries whose economic clout is strong and who are being courted by many.

Can both leaders contain the effects of the current falling out and limit the damage to the overall relationship, or will each double down and pursue domestic political interests? 

It will be difficult for Mr. Modi to pull back from India’s intention to pursue Sikh leaders it accuses of terrorism on foreign soil. Otherwise, he will be perceived as weakened.

It will be difficult for Mr. Trudeau to overcome the ire of most Canadians at the murder of a Canadian, on Canadian soil, allegedly by agents of a foreign government. 

Diplomacy will be a trying job and it will take time for wounds to heal, if they ever do. 

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Edition: Estefanía Cardeña